EXPLANATORY The “territorial issue” in which the negotiations to end the war in Ukraine have stalled

Tuesday's talks between Russian President Vladimir Putin and representatives of the US delegation produced no public progress on a potential peace deal in Ukraine, with Kremlin adviser Yuri Ushakov suggesting unresolved “territorial issues” were the main obstacle, Reuters reported on Wednesday.

Ushakov was referring to Moscow's claims to all of Ukraine's eastern Donetsk region, part of which remains in Kiev's hands nearly four years after Putin sent tens of thousands of troops into Ukraine and more than a decade after the Russian-backed separatist rebellion in Donetsk.

Almost all countries recognize Donetsk as part of Ukraine, but it is one of four regions in eastern Ukraine that Moscow claimed to have “annexed” in 2022 following referendums that Kiev and Western countries said were “a farce”.

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio told Fox News that the war is now about 20 percent — or just over 5,000 square kilometers (1,900 square miles) — of Donetsk, which Russia does not control but wants.

“Right now, they're literally fighting for 30-50 kilometers and the remaining 20 percent of the Donetsk region. What we're trying to do — and I think we've made some progress — is to find out what the Ukrainians could agree on, what would guarantee their security in the future, so that their country would never be invaded again; what would allow them not only to rebuild their economy, but to prosper, to become a state with a growing economy. Theoretically, if we do everything right, Ukraine's GDP could surpass Russia's in 10 years,” said the head of US diplomacy.

After nearly four years, everything has turned into a war of attrition, Rubio said, and, “unfortunately, the Russians are proving that they are willing to lose seven thousand soldiers a week to achieve their goal.”

“Putin said a few weeks ago, 'It may take a long time, but we're going to achieve our goals. It may cost more and take longer than we'd like, but we're going to do it.'

The Reuters news agency made an inventory of the reasons why Donetsk plays an essential role in the peace negotiations.

Putin's justification for full-scale war

Putin said when he sent troops to Ukraine in 2022 that his goal was “to protect people who have been subjected to intimidation and genocide … for the past eight years.”

Ukraine and its allies claimed the Kremlin leader's statement was a false pretext for a colonial-style war of conquest.

Putin's claim was referring to how Ukraine has fought back against Russian-backed separatists in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions, who broke away from government control in Kiev in 2014 and seized swaths of territory.

In the ensuing conflict in eastern Ukraine, the sides accused each other of bombing cities and civilians. Moscow cited the region's large Russian-speaking population to say it had a moral duty to intervene in 2022.

Kiev said it had no choice but to respond with force in 2014 to protect Ukraine's territorial integrity and has in turn accused separatist forces of shelling cities and civilians.

The United Nations estimates that 3,106 civilians were killed on both sides in fighting between Ukrainian government forces and separatists between 2014 and early 2022, and up to 9,000 civilians were injured.

The military importance of the region

The rest of Donetsk that Russia covets includes the cities of Sloviansk and Kramatorsk, “fortress cities” used by the Ukrainian military as command centers since 2014.

These are vital to Kiev's defense of the rest of Ukraine, as the terrain west of Donetsk is much flatter with vast open fields, which would make it easier for the Russian military to advance beyond Donetsk and capture territory on the east bank of the Dnipro River.

The two cities are part of a heavily fortified defensive line that includes trenches, anti-tank obstacles, bunkers and minefields located around them.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has said handing over the rest of Donetsk would be illegal without a referendum and would give Russia a platform to launch deeper attacks into Ukrainian territory in the future.

Kiev fears that if it cedes the rest of Donetsk, Russia would rearm and at some point use the region to advance west.

How Russians and Ukrainians view Donetsk

Both sides have suffered heavy casualties and spent huge amounts of money and equipment in the fight for Donetsk, including the city of Bakhmut, where Moscow has dumped tens of thousands of prisoners-turned-mercenaries in a battle that has become known as the “meat grinder”.

Because of this, the Donetsk region has gained greater importance in the public mind of both countries, which makes it more difficult to change the position of either of them.

Ukraine does not want to give Russia territory that the Russian military has failed to capture on the battlefield, and Zelenskiy said Moscow should not be rewarded for a war it initially fought.

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a US-based think tank, said in October that the pace of the Russian military's advance did not suggest it was on course to capture the rest of the Donetsk region, but that it could capture it by August 2027, “assuming a steady pace of advance” by Russian troops.

Russian commanders are more optimistic. General Valery Gherasimov, the head of the General Staff, told Putin on Sunday that Moscow's forces are advancing along the entire front line and that it is working to take full control of Donbas (Ukraine's province of Donetsk and Luhansk regions).

Industrial importance

Donetsk is home to ports, railways and other heavy industries. The region once accounted for more than half of Ukraine's coal, finished steel, coke, pig iron and steel production, but many mines and facilities were destroyed during the war.

Donetsk also has rare earths, titanium and zirconium – a source of income for whoever controls it.

The fate of the region is one factor that could shape the historical legacies of Putin and Zelenskiy.

Putin has presented himself as a defender of ethnic Russians, wherever they are. Securing control over all of Donetsk is central to this narrative.

Zelenskiy came to power in 2019 promising to end the war in eastern Ukraine. Since 2022, he has earned a reputation as a fearless defender of Ukraine, which is outnumbered and militarily outnumbered by its much larger and hostile neighbor.

Giving up Donetsk without a fight – ceding territory home to at least a quarter of a million Ukrainians – could be seen as a betrayal by Ukrainians, many of whom have relatives who died on the battlefield.

A borderline majority of the Ukrainian people still oppose territorial concessions, according to a recent poll by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology.

Legal considerations

Ukrainian officials, including Zelenskiy, have rejected the prospect of ceding territory controlled by Kiev as part of any peace deal.

Zelenskiy states that he does not have the mandate to cede territories and that state land cannot be traded as if it were his private property.

According to the Constitution of Ukraine, territorial changes must be resolved through a referendum that can be held if it is supported by the signatures of 3 million eligible Ukrainian voters from at least two-thirds of the country's regions.

US President Donald Trump criticized the idea that “a land swap” would require a referendum and said “there will be some land swaps”.