Xi Jinping ends the year in a better position than his American and Russian counterparts, writes the Financial Times
“I've never seen men so scared.” That's the verdict that Donald Trump gave amusedly after observing at a recent meeting the intimidating effect that Xi Jinping has on his own entourage. “I wish my cabinet behaved like that,” the US president joked, according to a Financial Times op-ed.
Trump's return to the Oval Office signaled the revival of the strong-arm style in global politics. The international agenda is increasingly shaped by bilateral meetings between strong and stubborn leaders. High-level multilateral meetings such as the UN General Assembly, the G20 or the COP climate conference are increasingly losing their relevance.
Neither Trump nor Xi attended the recent G20 conference in South Africa. It was an event that would have forced them to share the limelight with the rulers of smaller countries. Saudi Arabia's Mohammed bin Salman didn't even bother with the G20, nor did Russia's Vladimir Putin.
It's not easy for Putin to travel these days. That didn't stop him, however, from enjoying a few high-level meetings that allowed him to recommend himself as a respected leader of a great power. This week he will be in New Delhi to meet Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi. In September he was walking around Beijing in the company of Xi and North Korea's Kim Jong-un. He had met Trump in Alaska the previous month.
In any case, although Putin is trying to keep up appearances, it is clear that from now on he can no longer claim the position of leader of a great power. After nearly four years of war, the Russian army is still struggling to get out of Donbas, and Russia's economy is now dependent on China's largesse.
Trump and Xi, on the other hand, are at the head of countries whose economic power validates their arrogance as potentates. Despite his relentless campaign for the Nobel Peace Prize, Trump has shown himself willing to use military force. In June he decided to bomb Iran, and now he is threatening Venezuela.
But Trump's bid to end the year as the most powerful of potentates is increasingly undermined by signs that his domestic support is eroding. The Republican Party recently suffered heavy electoral defeats in New York, New Jersey and Virginia. The American electorate does not believe his proclamations that the economy is doing great and inflation has been defeated. Recent polls heading into next year's general election show Democrats leading Republicans by an average of 5 percent.
The sense that the country is turning against Trump may be what emboldened Republicans in Congress to revolt against the president, forcing the release of the Jeffrey Epstein dossier. Trump's inability to prevent publication, after months of efforts to do so, is one of the few signs of weakness he has betrayed. Depending on the contents of the dossier, Epstein may or may not continue to haunt the president for months to come.
Xi, by contrast, looks set to end the year looking stronger than it has in a while. The Chinese leader has made it through a perilous five-year period. A pandemic that broke out in China caused a global catastrophe – although Xi and his government somehow managed to thwart all attempts to hold China accountable. Xi's domestic mishandling of the pandemic has resulted in an unusual outpouring of public discontent. And the tariffs imposed by America threatened China's access to world markets.
However, and unlike the EU and Japan, China has been unusually tough in its reaction to Trump's trade war and has used its control of rare earths and other essential minerals to force the US to lower its tariffs. This rare earth weapon could affect America's calculations regarding a potential conflict over Taiwan. And the perception of the revival of China's power may have been reflected in the aggressive stance adopted by Beijing towards Sanae Takaichi, the new prime minister of Japan, after she had made a series of statements related to Taiwan that did not sit well with Beijing.
Xi enjoys an image advantage in the mogul race, where much depends on the ability to project the appearance of unchallenged power. In a way that Trump can only envy, Xi has almost complete control over the legislature, the judiciary and the media. Which makes signs of dissent or instability rare in China.
And yet, those clues are there, if one wants to look for them specifically. Xi has passed a decade in power, but he is still purging his political and military elites at an exceptional rate. It may be an indication of either his personal paranoia or the persistence of corruption. But either way, it's in stark contrast to the official image of calm and strength that Xi would like to project.
Ministers and advisers who accompanied Xi to his meeting with Trump in South Korea in October had reason to look spooked. Many of their predecessors had recently been purged: one foreign minister, two defense ministers, nine influential generals, plus the head of the Communist Party's international relations department.
In contrast, Trump's latest effort to imprison a political adversary — former FBI chief James Comey — has been thwarted by the courts. No doubt a source of frustration for the president. But instead, an encouraging signal for America, indicating that the political system as a whole is still stronger than the person of a charismatic leader.
Whatever Trump may be thinking, a president surrounded by frightened subordinates is not a sign of health for any country.
Material produced with the support of Rador Radio Romania
