publication
2025-12-03 15:29
The Monetary Policy Council did not surprise economists and, as expected, reduced the NBP interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point. This was the fifth decision of this type in a row, bringing benefits to debtors and at the same time leading to a reduction in interest rates on deposits and bonds.
Pursuant to the decision of the Monetary Policy Council of December 3, 2025, the interest rates of the National Bank of Poland will be as follows:
- reference rate 4.00% per annum;
- lombard rate 4.50% per annum;
- deposit rate 3.50% per annum;
- rediscount rate of bills of exchange 4.05% per annum;
- bill of exchange discount rate 4.10% per annum.
In each case, this represents a reduction of 25 basis points, or a quarter of a percentage point. Such a decision was quite widely expected on the market, where such a move was quite widely expected.
However, this was a violation of a certain informal tradition, under which the Council usually does not change interest rates in December. Previously, in its entire history, the Monetary Policy Council changed interest rates at its December meetings only in 1998 (-150 bps), in 2008 (-75 bps), in 2012 (-25 bps) and in 2021 (+50 bps). All these dates have in common the global crisis situation, which forced the Council to take sudden and decisive action. This time, however, such a situation did not occur.
The “non-cycle” of monetary policy easing in Poland is ongoing
After the December reduction, interest rates at the National Bank of Poland are the lowest since April 2022. It was also the sixth reduction in interest rates in Poland this year. The first one took place in May, when the Monetary Policy Council, after almost half a year of stabilizing the money price, immediately decided to cut it by 50 points. Then the Council officially talked about “adjusting” interest rates and swore that this was not the beginning of a cycle of reductions. As it turned out later, this was not true.
In June, the Council “rested” and kept rates unchanged. Another cut – surprising for most economists – 25 bp. – took place in July, and the next one (already expected by the market) materialized in September. The cuts continued also in October, when the Council lowered rates contrary to the expectations of most analysts. As a result, the total scale of monetary policy loosening in Poland since the beginning of the year amounted to 175 basis points. Therefore, this is quite a dynamic cycle of reductions, and not any “adjustment” of interest rates announced by the Council.
At this point, everything indicates that this is not the end of the “non-cycle” of lowering interest rates in Poland. The market estimates that in 2026 the reference rate will be close to 3.50%. This would imply two more 25-point cuts. In turn, some economists expect cuts of up to 100 basis points next year.
– In the short term, inflation forecasts suggest that there is still room for rate cuts (…) In the horizon of the year, the market estimates (WIBOR 3M) 75bps reductions. This is two less than our forecast – we see the end of the cycle at 3.00%. The downward shift of the forecast was dictated by the low inflation forecast. – this is what mBank economists wrote.
In November, CPI inflation was within the 2.5% target of the National Bank of Poland for the first time in a year and a half and quite unexpectedly dropped from 2.8% to 2.4% – according to a flash estimate by the Central Statistical Office. It was also the fifth month in a row in which CPI inflation was within the permissible (+/- 1 percentage point) deviation from the target. This is much faster than expected in the November NBP inflation projection, according to which CPI inflation was to reach the 2.5% target level only in 2027.
Who is happy about lower interest rates?
Another reduction in interest rates will probably please debtors who repay their liabilities based on a variable interest rate. This group mainly includes people in debt for the purchase of real estate who incurred their obligations before 2022. The ruling politicians will be even more pleased, as the State Treasury is the largest debtor in the country.
At the same time, savers will again lose out, for whom the reduction of NBP rates will mean lower interest earned on bank deposits or bonds based on variable interest rates. However, real positive interest rates (ex post) still apply in Poland. This means that the NBP reference rate exceeds CPI inflation for the previous 12 months.
The publication of the official statement of the Monetary Policy Council containing the justification for the October decision is scheduled for 4:00 p.m. However, this will be explained in more detail by the President of the National Bank of Poland, Adam Glapiński, during Thursday's press conference. The next – and first in 2026 – meeting of the Council is scheduled for January 13-14.
