The aim of Saxo's forecasts is to “stimulate discussions about what markets and the global economy could look like in the event of unexpected events,” say analysts at the Danish bank. “While these forecasts are not official market predictions, they have been surprisingly accurate several times over the course of more than a decade, showing that events considered unlikely can be a significant source of volatility and turning points,” the analysis continues.
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This year, for the first time in history, a scenario for Poland was also prepared. Analysts asked themselves what could happen if our country stopped for 72 hours after a cyberattack.
What would happen if a cyber attack stopped Poland for 72 hours?
The scenario for Poland assumes a short-term but nationwide shutdown of the economy as a result of a cyberattack on the energy infrastructure. According to analysts, Poland, whose logistics role in Europe has been growing in recent years, based its competitiveness on cheap energy and efficient supply chains, while underinvestment in transmission infrastructure and control systems.
In the analyzed variant, the malware leads to an emergency shutdown of the network. This full-scale system reset. The country stops. Factories, the financial sector and transport are plunged into darkness. Within a 72-hour horizon, economic losses exceed PLN 80 billion.
The energy and mining companies are taking the first blow. The costs of restarting infrastructure and liability for damage dominate public debate. There is even an idea of a “blackout tax” that would calm down public outrage.
Logistics and retail trade are equally severely affected. Supermarkets, warehouses and cold chains lose stock when transport breaks down – the losses are irreversible. Heavy industries – such as chemicals, cement and steel – are exposed to costly, emergency shutdowns of installations that require complex and risky restarts. This discourages investors and leads to a rapid outflow of capital.
Financial markets react with a sharp adjustment in valuations: energy and mining companies lose 40-60 percent, banks 15-25 percent, and the zloty weakens by 5-10 percent. against major currencies, and Treasury bond yields increase by 50-100 basis points. Portfolios strongly focused on domestic energy, banking and industry record above-average losses.
— Shocking forecasts are not traditional predictions, but a thought experiment that is intended to inspire you to look at the markets from a different perspective. In the case of Poland, it's about reflecting on the consequences of events that have already taken place in Europe – in Spain, the Czech Republic, Portugal, France and Austria – and which, in certain circumstances, may also appear locally – says Aleksander Mrózek, Manager for relations with key clients of the CEE region at Saxo Bank.
— We treat this as an encouragement to consciously prepare for various scenarios – this means not only thinking about securing everyday needs, but also about protecting assets – for example through diversification. Our simulation shows that in the face of extreme events, portfolio diversification is crucial, especially internationally and in assets independent of domestic infrastructure. This approach reduces risk concentration and strengthens resistance to local shocks, he adds.
Global scenarios
This year's edition of the crisis scenario for Poland covers topics ranging from the breakthrough of quantum technologies and the potential destabilization of digital financial infrastructure, through cultural impulses influencing consumer behavior, to scenarios of political changes and transformation of business models in the space technology, artificial intelligence and pharmaceutical sectors. The set of forecasts is intended to draw attention to the fact that markets – although they often assume continuation of trends – are particularly sensitive to non-linear breakthrough events.
— Saxo's forecasts for 2026 cover an exceptionally broad range of topics that may challenge current assumptions about market stability. The goal of these analyzes is not accuracy, but questioning established narratives and stimulating imagination, comments John J. Hardy, chief macro strategist at Saxo.
— Over ten years since the first publication of this series as many as six scenarios, which were considered extremely unlikely at the time of announcement, were reflected in actual economic and market trends. It is possible that in the coming year it is predictability that will prove to be the most unexpected, he points out.
Global Shocking Predictions for 2026:
1. Beijing challenges the dominance of the dollar by introducing the “golden yuan”
China is introducing a gold-linked, offshore version of the yuan for trade settlements, reducing dependence on the dollar for international transactions. The dollar remains the dominant reserve currency, but is losing its monopoly position.
Market impact: gold exceeds $6,000. per ounce, dollar rate per yuan falls below 5.0, US bond yields increase due to the outflow of foreign capital. The “golden yuan” becomes the second permanent anchor of the monetary system.
2. Massive errors of autonomous AI systems generate losses of one trillion dollars
Immature, poorly curated and automated AI systems begin to scale operational errors, leading to costly disruptions and the need for extensive repairs to digital infrastructure. A new segment of services is emerging – auditing and code “sanitization” – including control functions over autonomous models.
Market impact: increase in revenues of cybersecurity, auditing and consulting companies; downward pressure on valuations of high-autonomy AI platforms; shifting capital towards companies offering operational resilience and human oversight.
3. Cultural event as a macroeconomic impulse: the Swift-Kelce wedding increases consumption and demographic dynamics
In 2026, markets are observing that a sudden and global cultural impulse may translate into household behavior. The increased interest in family life, strengthening social ties and setting up households leads to an increase in the fertility rate and acceleration of demand for housing and durable goods. Economists identify this as a psychological and social effect influencing the growth of consumption.
Market impact: negative for social media companies (less user activity), positive for housing construction, the DIY and home furnishings segment, luxury goods, wedding and tourism industries.
4. US 2026 midterm elections progress steadily as political pressure on markets subsides
In the political scenario, extreme polarization subsides after controversial electoral practices trigger a reaction from the moderate electorate, strengthening support for institutional reforms and stabilizing the democratic process. Donald Trump remains an active political figure, but social tensions are easing, reducing the political risk premium in asset valuations.
Market impact: increase in US treasury bond prices (decrease in yield), declines in the social media sector, cryptocurrencies, gold and silver.
5. Popularization of GLP-1 obesity drugs – also in veterinary medicine
Oral GLP-1 therapies are becoming widely available, changing the health profile of the population and increasing life expectancy. Food and catering companies must adapt their business models to new consumption patterns. Extending the therapy to the veterinary market opens up additional growth segments.
Market impact: increase in sales in the clothing industry (wardrobe replacement), strong divergence in results in the food and restaurant sectors, appreciation of medical and veterinary companies along with the growing adoption of GLP-1.
6. Accelerated Quantum Breakthrough: Premature Q-Day Destabilizes Crypto Market and Global Finance
In the technological scenario, Saxo assumes that already in 2026 quantum computers will achieve the ability to break existing cryptographic standards. This results in a rapid loss of digital security integrity. Cryptocurrencies are collapsing, gold is taking over as a key security asset, and banks and governments are forced to urgently rebuild their security architecture towards post-quantum solutions.
Market impact: increased volatility of companies in the field of quantum technologies and cybersecurity (including IBM), strong fluctuations in bitcoin and digital assets, increase in gold prices, pressure on the banking sector.
7. SpaceX IPO as a catalyst for the development of the space economy
SpaceX's stock market debut reaches a valuation exceeding USD 1 trillion, which gives extraterrestrial markets the status of an independent investment asset class. Orbital and lunar projects are receiving institutional financing, and the space sector is moving from the visionary to the operational and commercial phase.
Market impact: increase in valuations of companies related to rocket technologies and electronic components (including Teledyne, Microchip Technology).
8. An artificial intelligence model takes over as CEO of a Fortune 500 company
For the first time, an AI decision-making algorithm is formally appointed to a top management position in a large corporation. This introduces a new dynamic in corporate governance and forces regulators and supervisory boards to revise the standards of accountability and organizational governance.
Market impact: further increase in demand for AI infrastructure, cloud services and governance technologies; insurers and auditors are developing products for algorithmic management; investors initially impose a risk premium on AI-managed entities.
