European capitals are anxiously watching Witkoff's return to Moscow. Will Trump's envoy manage to get out of the loop?

The sixth visit to Moscow, on Tuesday, by the US diplomatic envoy Steve Witkoff, is watched with anxiety by the European capitals, but also in Washington. He comes to Moscow with a simplified peace plan, negotiated in the meantime by the US and Ukraine, and which leaves out the most sensitive points. But while expectations for an unblocking of the peace process are high in the Trump administration, many analysts believe that Russia will once again put the US on hold at Moscow's pace, a Kyiv Post analysis found.

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Iurii Boieciko, the general director of the US-based Hope For Ukraine organization, believes that this time the mission offered to Witkoff will probably be a “waste of time”, taking into account the fact that the former real estate tycoon failed to “produce tangible progress” in any of the previous visits, with Russia using each time the opportunity to “buy time”.

As Putin has the same strategic goal of taking all of Ukraine, any peace plan that would result from such talks is only “a short-term tactical maneuver, not a genuine commitment to end the war.”

A plan narrowed to 19 points that does not sway Moscow

Even in the reduced version in which the “difficult issues” were bracketed, Moscow showed no signs of flexibility on the new plan, still insisting on territorial concessions, restrictions on Ukraine's military and the renegotiation of NATO's role in Europe, says Stephen Sestanovich, senior fellow for Russian and Eurasian studies at the Council on Foreign Relations.

It's an assessment shared by many other Washington observers.

Thus, despite the fact that the US sent a negotiator preferred by Russia, he failed to change Moscow's position “on anything”, a senior European diplomat commented to the Kyiv Post.

The scenario most fear is an uncomfortable one: Vladimir Putin will talk, but not because he wants peace.

Moscow appears eager for talks, but this willingness comes at a price: a peace process in a “normal diplomatic” format: committees, technical talks, working groups, namely a structure where Russia can negotiate empty-handed, its terms being the same.

Putin also has a second goal, analysts say: restoring US-Russia dialogue on broader strategic issues — the Arctic, missile defense, European security — where even a token engagement with an American president gives him the global stature he craves.

That prestige, Graham argues, remains one of Washington's most underutilized sources of influence, points out Thomas Graham, a former special assistant to President George W. Bush.

The heart of the unrest in European capitals: the wrong messenger, at the most dangerous moment of the war

“Sending an emissary with limited diplomatic experience and a known tendency to operate outside of typical protocols only empowers Moscow,” warns Boieciko, director general of Hope For Ukraine.

Such an approach allows the Kremlin to flood the field with initiatives “that, in the end, change nothing.” Moreover, these mistakes undermine the credibility of Washington's position, while increasing anxiety in Kiev and on NATO's eastern flank.

Moscow knows exactly how to exploit this dynamic: on a previous visit, Witkoff had to wait eight hours before seeing Putin – a textbook show of power disguised as diplomacy, the Kyiv Post writes.

Europe insists on relevance in negotiations

As Washington worries about Witkoff's next failure, European governments are scrambling to bolster Kiev's security.

Some capitals are openly discussing the once-taboo possibility of deploying European troops to western Ukraine — a step they say could be the only way to offset concessions Trump might press Kiev to accept in other respects.

However, as Liana Fix, senior researcher for Europe at CFR, warns, even these moves are being misinterpreted. There is no meaningful Article 5-style guarantee of the kind offered by NATO.

And Russia's supposed willingness to tolerate Ukraine's potential EU membership is a misrepresentation: Moscow assumes that the EU will never succeed in integrating Ukraine – and views EU membership as pointless without NATO.

However, having become the biggest financial supporter of Ukraine, the capitals of the EU and NATO insist that they will not accept to be excluded from the final diplomatic game of the war.

The Trump team's initial proposals set off alarms across Europe, one of which was to position the US as a mediator between NATO and Russia, a move frontline states fear could undermine NATO's core deterrence mission.

Handling negotiations

Fix issues another warning: the recurring loop – negotiations, Russia disappoints, Washington escalates, Congress responds with sanctions – is eroding European confidence in NATO. Each cycle, she argues, “allows Russia to erode” confidence in American engagement.

Sestanovich makes a stark assessment: Trump may not realize he's being duped. Russia, he warns, “draws him into her vision.” The White House must stop imagining itself as a mediator and instead act as a stakeholder supporting Ukraine.

Only then can Washington reset the balance of power and break out of the “endless series of Witkoff-Dmitriev conversations” that create movement without momentum.

Boieciko reinforces this point: As long as Moscow can manipulate the US envoy, the process will remain stalled.

No one expects Witkoff's meeting to produce a breakthrough. Neither do the analysts. Neither do the Europeans. Neither does Kiev.

Putin is unlikely to accept or reject the plan outright. Instead, he will insist on technical talks and test Trump's patience for a slow diplomatic process.

Europe will fight so that Ukraine is not blamed if things fall apart. Ukraine will try to avoid being presented as an obstructionist.

And, as Fix predicts, “in two or three weeks,” Western capitals will likely be at exactly the same point: frustrated with Russia, debating new sanctions and worried about NATO's long-term credibility.

Into this geopolitical minefield enters Steve Witkoff—Trump loyalist, real estate mogul, and the most unlikely contact man for the biggest diplomatic challenge of the war.

Trump wants a quick win. Putin wants legitimacy and time. Europe wants assurance that it will not be marginalised. And Ukraine wants one thing above all: not to be blamed if all this falls apart.

“Until Russia signals a real willingness to negotiate – no power plays, no delays – this sixth face-to-face visit will be nothing more than a photo opportunity for Moscow,” Boieciko concludes.