2025-12-01 10:26
publication
2025-12-01 10:26
Accompanied by positive data from the Polish economy, the euro rate again attacked the support line, falling into the zone of PLN 4.22-4.23. This is another attack on the lower limit of this year's side trend on the euro-zloty pair.
On Monday at 10:15 the euro rate dropped by more than a penny, falling to PLN 4.2273. Therefore, we have another attack on the zone of PLN 4.22-4.23, which marks the lower limit of the sideways trend that has been in force since April. A possible permanent break of this support based on technical analysis would open the way to this year's lows at the end of February (approx. PLN 4.13).
Data from the Polish economy provided support for the zloty. The PMI index for industry continued to move upwards, as expected, and in November it was on the verge of recovery in economic activity in this sector. Moreover, the Central Statistical Office slightly revised the GDP data for the third quarter upwards.
Speculations regarding the conclusion of peace in Ukraine also contribute to the strengthening of the zloty. Trilateral negotiations are in full swing. EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas said this week could be crucial for diplomacy as Sunday's talks between the Ukrainian and US delegations on ending the Russian invasion were “productive.”
In turn, the December meeting of the Monetary Policy Council should not have a major impact on the zloty. The market took into account the 25-point reduction in interest rates at the National Bank of Poland in its valuations. Now the only open question is how much the rates will be reduced in 2026 and at what level this cycle of monetary policy easing in Poland will end.
– No rate cut would be a significant surprise for the market (…) However, one may wonder whether market valuations of the NBP reference rate are clearly below 3.50%. in 2026, this is not an overly optimistic scenario. In this context, the behavior of the dollar, shaped by a number of macro readings from the US, as well as further developments around the war between Russia and Ukraine, seem to be of key importance – PKO BP economists wrote in their morning report.
– In our opinion, factors supporting the strength of the PLN will prevail over the week, hence at the end of the week we expect a slightly stronger zloty, around 4.22 on EUR/PLN and around 3.63 on USD/PLN – they added.
The weakening of the dollar in relation to the euro also provided support for the zloty. The EUR/USD rate moved up and was above USD 1.16. This, of course, does not change much in the longer term, but in the short term it is a positive signal for currencies from emerging markets, such as the Polish zloty. As a result, on Monday morning the dollar was worth PLN 3.6402, i.e. 1.4 groszy less than before the weekend. Since August, the USD/PLN exchange rate has remained in the range of PLN 3.60-3.70.
In turn, the Swiss franc was valued at PLN 4.5341, which was over a penny lower than on Friday evening. The franc-zloty pair has had a sideways trend in the range of PLN 4.50-4.60 since April, and for now there is no greater chance of its ending soon.
However, there was a strong depreciation of the British pound on the market, which fell by nearly 2.5 cents in the morning and cost PLN 4.8127. Sterling has been trying to make up for losses over the previous two weeks after being at its lowest level in six years on November 19.
K.K
