“Pokrovsk was actually lost, belated attempts to clear the city were ineffective,” wrote Ukraińska Pravda, citing unofficial findings and its own sources in the Ukrainian army. The reason for this situation is the excessive advantage of the Russian army in this sector. “The maps published by the General Staff in relation to the Pokrovsk section lag behind the realities by at least a month,” it was written in the analysis of the situation around Pokrovsk and other key sections of the front line, as well as the prospects for developments in the situation for next year.
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What is the current control over Pokrovsk?
Why did Ukraine lose control over Pokrovsk?
What do the fighting forecasts say for next year?
What factors influenced the situation on the Pokrovsk front?
Ukraine lost control over Pokrovsk. “This is the first such case”
Importantly, according to the presented analysis, Pokrovsk is the first time in this war when Ukraine lost control not only of the terrain on the ground, but also of the airspace. “The Russians have created an effective control zone over the city using drones, mainly with the help of their most effective Rubikon drone unit,” wrote Ukraińska Pravda. This made logistics and rotation of forces in Ukrainian positions impossible and allowed mechanized forces to also be introduced into operations in Pokrovsk itself – on November 19, Ukrainian channels monitoring the situation on the front line reported the appearance of the first Russian tanks.
The Russian army continues operations north of Pokrovsk, near the town of Rodynśke, striving to complete the encirclement of the entire Pokrov-Myrnograd agglomeration also from the north. At the same time, Russian forces are also conducting offensive operations in the Kharkiv Oblast, aiming to push the Ukrainian army beyond the Oskil River, as well as in the Zaporizhia and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts. Russian troops are also trying to penetrate Konstantinivka; this city is also under Russian artillery and drone fire.
Forecasts for next year. Two scenarios are indicated
The reasons for this situation, which is increasingly unfavorable for the Ukrainian side, the analysis of Ukrainian Pravda, point to too few infantrymen who could be sent to defend positions on the front (which is mainly due to mobilization problems), errors in command, and the growing advantage on the Russian side.
Forecasts for next year indicate that, according to the most optimistic scenarios, battles will take place for Łyman, Siversk, Konstantynivka and Dobropilla. In the pessimistic variant – Kramatorsk and Sloviansk, which, due to the approaching front line and the increasing activity of Russian drones, will be places where the functioning of the civilian population will not be possible.
