Black Friday ends in Romania, but it's just starting globally. What investors are waiting for

In Romania, Black Friday is almost sold out, at the international level it is just beginning. The popular discount holiday marks the symbolic beginning of the most profitable period for retailers around the world, especially for online platforms, according to analysts.

Black Friday is just getting started in international markets. Photo by Shutterstock

In 2025, Black Friday will take place globally on November 28, marking the start of the busiest shopping period of the year. Historically, stocks of retail and e-commerce companies have outperformed the S&P 500 both before and after Black Friday.

For example, in 2024, global online sales increased by approximately 5%, exceeding $74 billion, and in the US advanced by more than 10%, up to $10.8 billion. According to data from Kepler Analytics, during the week of Black Friday 2023, physical sales averaged 93% higher than a typical week, a sign of strong consumer interest.

How Black Friday Reflects on Wall Street

For investors, Black Friday is an indicator of consumer confidence and economic direction in the final quarter of the year. In 2024, Mastercard SpendingPulse data shows a 3.5% increase in total brick-and-mortar sales and a 14.6% advance in e-commerce, a sign that market dynamics are increasingly shifting to the digital realm. Analysts at Bain & Company estimate that in 2025 the Black Friday – Cyber ​​Monday weekend will account for about 9% of holiday season retail spending, up from about 11% last year.

Online sales could reach $12 billion in the US alone and $80 billion globally, fueling the rise of e-commerce. In recent years, the shares of companies such as Amazon, Shopify, Allegro and Zalando have consistently outperformed the S&P 500 index during this period, confirming that Black Friday has become a strategic moment not only for retail, but also for financial markets, XTB analysts explain.

Shares in physical trade by season

Over the past two decades, stocks in the retail sector have consistently outperformed the market benchmark, especially in the 17 days leading up to Black Friday. Companies like Macy's or Tapestry Inc. benefits more from the entire Q4 shopping season than a single day of sales, but Black Friday remains a key landmark of the period.

Typically, retail stocks continue to hold above the market average in the weeks following the event, although the gap is gradually fading. In other words, early November marks the entry into the most favorable time of the year for retail and e-commerce stocks, also supported by the traditional “Santa Rally” effect.

The big winners are online trading platforms

The stocks with the greatest potential for gains during the Black Friday season are e-commerce stocks, which directly feel the increase in sales volume. In the US, Amazon and Shopify dominate by global reach, while in Europe / Central and Eastern Europe, Zalando and Allegro could see important seasonal growth in 2025. Beyond online platforms, brands such as Nike, Levi Strauss and L'Oréal can benefit from the expansion of digital channels and high consumer appetite during the holidays.

1. Amazon

Amazon ended the third quarter with revenue growth and profits above Wall Street's expectations, once again confirming the potential for expansion. The company anticipates the fourth quarter to be strong, supported by the holiday season. Shares are testing support around $242, with the next major resistance at $255, maintaining a generally bullish outlook, XTB analysts said.

2. Shopify

Shares of Shopify have recently fallen about 10% from all-time highs, but the overall trend remains up. The company plays a critical role in the global e-commerce ecosystem, providing infrastructure for millions of online stores. As the price approaches the support area, buyer interest could return. In the past, November and December have been the best performing months for Shopify, fueled by high transaction volumes generated by Black Friday and Cyber ​​Monday.

3. Allegro

Allegro continues to be the engine of e-commerce in Central and Eastern Europe, operating in Poland and neighboring markets, where GDP and private consumption have grown steadily in recent years. The decision by the National Bank of Poland to cut interest rates, combined with the advance of real wages, creates favorable conditions for the return of consumption, which could boost the performance of the platform. From a technical perspective, Allegro shares are testing a solid support level around PLN 34, and a rebound from this area could confirm a resumption of the company's uptrend, considered the region's retail technology leader.

4. Zalando

Once the symbol of the growth of the European online fashion market, Zalando is going through a difficult period since 2021, but it maintains its leading position and solid base of active customers. Black Friday season could become a turning point, as an increase in order volume or margins could trigger a short-term rebound. Historically, seasonal peaks have brought back investor interest in the company, and 2025 could repeat that scenario.

5. Nike

Nike shares are under pressure after falling below its 200-day exponential moving average, but Black Friday could bring a rebound. The company has traditionally seen record direct-to-consumer sales through its website, Nike.com and the SNKRS app, with its integrated channel model strengthening brand appeal. In addition, a possible favorable decision on import duties could support profitability, providing premises for a recovery in shares in the period ahead, XTB analysts add.

How was Black Friday in Romania

In Romania, Black Friday has become the peak day of online commerce – the only time of the year when digital sales exceed traditional retail. More and more consumers are attending the event with prepared shopping lists and carefully planned budgets.

“However, the Romanian market has a peculiarity: the largest retailer in the country sets its own Black Friday date, earlier than the international one. This forces other players to align with this calendar (or choose to ignore it), as well as to stay in sync with the international Black Friday edition, which takes place on November 28”according to an analysis by Ebury.

This early release generated record breaking performances. The largest online retailer in Romania – and one of the important players in the region – reported results beyond expectations: orders worth 194 million euros (over 986 million lei), up 10% compared to last year. More than 702,000 customers ordered 3.5 million products. Almost a third of the items purchased came from the more than 15,000 partner merchants who participated in this year's edition – the largest number ever.

This performance confirms the growing trust of consumers in online commerce and the increasingly important role that marketplaces play in the digital ecosystem. At the same time, it highlights the increased relevance of modern financing solutions, such as Buy Now, Pay Later (BNPL).

According to some market estimates, e-commerce in Romania is expected to grow by 11.5% in 2025. According to ARMO, in 2024, the e-commerce market reached 11.5 billion euros, representing 3.42% of GDP. In Central and Eastern Europe, Romania ranks third in terms of e-commerce value, after Poland and the Czech Republic. In addition, according to Eurostat, internet access in Romania reached 94.57% in 2024, up from 86.24% in 2020. However, currency volatility – especially in emerging markets – adds an additional level of complexity for companies involved in cross-border sales.