The percentage of Ukrainians planning to stay in Poland permanently is growing. Latest data
In 2025, 51 percent planned to stay in Poland. pre-war migrants from Ukraine and 24 percent refugees, in both cases by 3 percentage points. more y/y – according to a study by the National Bank of Poland. A hypothetical peace in Ukraine should not influence the decisions of most immigrants before the war, and for refugees it is difficult to judge.
Increase in declarations of staying permanently
“In 2025, the percentage of immigrants declaring their willingness to stay permanently in Poland increased slightly (by 3 percentage points).
More than half of the refugees had no specific plans. In 2025, 51% of people planned to stay permanently in Poland. pre-war immigrants (compared to 48 percent in 2024) and 24 percent refugees (compared to 21% in 2024),” says the National Bank of Poland.
Insecurity among refugees and the role of language
“The vast majority of refugees had problems answering this question (56 percent). Uncertainty also persisted among pre-war immigrants (37 percent). From the perspective of 2022, it is clear that despite the passage of time, the proportions of answers are very stable. Declarations regarding a quick return to Ukraine were relatively common among refugees in 2023 (7 percent of answers), and currently, among both pre-war immigrants and refugees, it is marginal (2 percent of answers).
Declarations about staying in Poland permanently are positively correlated with good knowledge of the Polish language.
Among pre-war immigrants who knew Polish well, 55 percent declares they will stay in Poland permanently (compared to 27-28 percent with a worse knowledge of the Polish language). Among refugees who know Polish well, 31-34 percent (depending on gender) declared to stay in Poland permanently. Among refugees with a poorer knowledge of the language, it was 14-18 percent.
City or province? Where is it easier to stay?
Immigrants living outside large cities are less likely to declare staying in Poland permanently.
“There are large differences between the opportunities to find a well-paid and stable job in large urban agglomerations and such opportunities in smaller centers, which probably translates into immigrants' plans to stay in Poland permanently. They are much more common among immigrants who live in provincial cities than among people living outside them,” the NBP report said.
This difference is especially clear among immigrants who came to Poland before the war. In the case of pre-war immigrants living in provincial cities, the percentage who wanted to stay in Poland permanently was 54 percent, while among those living outside agglomerations it was 44 percent.
Gender and family matter
Most often, men who came with children or entire families declared their willingness to stay in Poland.
Immigration to Poland caused by the full-scale war in Ukraine was the reason for the influx of mainly women and children to Poland. Survey research shows that women are less likely to declare that they would like to stay in Poland permanently, regardless of whether they are refugees or have come to Poland earlier. Men, especially those staying in Poland with children, are clearly more likely to declare their willingness to stay permanently.
What will change peace in Ukraine?
The hypothetical conclusion of peace in Ukraine should not influence the decisions of most pre-war immigrants and is difficult to assess when it comes to refugees.
“More than 50 percent of pre-war immigrants assessed that concluding peace in Ukraine would not affect their life plans; 24 percent of refugees had a similar task. More than 40 percent of refugees had no opinion on what they would do in such a situation. People declaring specific actions were therefore in the minority in both groups,” it was written.
Among the refugees, there were similarly numerous groups choosing extremely different reactions to the hypothetical conclusion of peace. Return to Ukraine and the answer “I will stay longer in Poland” were declared by approximately 13-14 percent. refugees.
“While the motivation for returning to Ukraine in such a situation is clear, the declaration of a longer stay in Poland can be associated with the expectation of easier family reunification in emigration after the cessation of hostilities. In a similar way, the higher percentage of pre-war immigrants declaring to stay longer in Poland after the hypothetical conclusion of peace can be interpreted than those who are considering returning to Ukraine in such a situation,” it was written.
About 5 percent immigrants assume that after concluding peace they will spend time both in Poland and Ukraine, while 4 percent respondents declared that they would bring their family from Ukraine to Poland.
Work and money decide
The willingness to stay in Poland is largely determined by factors related to the labor market.
Similarly to 2024, the two most common answers to the question about factors that may influence the extension of stay in Poland were: the ability to support yourself and your family (44%) and satisfactory work (38%).
Compared to the situation a year earlier, the possibility of supporting oneself and one's family was chosen slightly less frequently (in 2024, it was over 48% of responses), while satisfactory work was chosen slightly more often (in 2024, it was 35% of responses). Also slightly more often (especially among pre-war immigrants) the arrival of other family members from Ukraine was indicated as an event that would make them stay in Poland longer.
The report presents the results of a survey conducted by the National Bank of Poland among immigrants from Ukraine in the period from April 7 to June 20, 2025. (PAP Biznes)
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