China uses a large-scale lending policy to pursue its geostrategic ambitions, according to the latest report by the AidData research institute. Michał Bogusz from OSW told PAP that in this way Beijing eliminates competition and creates threats also for Poland.
Between 2000 and 2023, China provided 200 countries with loans and subsidies worth $2.2 trillion, according to the latest report by AidData, an American research institute from William and Mary University.
The authors of the report point out that Beijing makes even countries that openly compete with it dependent on its money, and Chinese capital flows to where it can strengthen China's position.
As the main author of the report, Bradley Parks, director of AidData, told PAP The “China loan portfolio” is linked to Beijing's “geoeconomic” strategy of supporting Chinese companies to gain a foothold in sensitive sectors abroad.
– This is about expanding control over access to key segments of the mineral supply chain, increasing export opportunities for Chinese companies and facilitating the acquisition of technologically advanced assets – Parks emphasized.
It is no accident – in his opinion – that “most loans granted to rich countries go to companies from the critical infrastructure sector and are used to acquire technologically advanced assets, such as companies producing semiconductors.”
Borrowers so far have included both high-income countries, such as the United States, Japan and Australia, and developing countries.
Beijing's largest clients in Europe were, according to the report, Great Britain ($60 billion), Switzerland ($41 billion) and Germany ($33.4 million). Globally, most Chinese capital flowed to the USA ($202 billion), Russia ($172 billion) and Venezuela ($106 billion).
Poland received USD 1.8 billion from China during this time. loans and grantsmuch less than even Hungary ($10.8 billion) or Belarus ($12 billion).
According to Michał Bogusz, an analyst in the China Team of the Center for Eastern Studies, the fact that Poland has not been a serious Chinese borrower so far is paradoxically due to the fact that we are treated by Beijing as competitors for the Chinese industry, because we are a country with a strong – from their point of view – industrial base.
– In supply chains around the world, despite the incomparably smaller scale, Poland generally competes with Chinese companies, what's more, we would like to advance and create more and more technologically sophisticated products, and this again means competition with China – emphasized Bogusz and added that China directs its money to “where it will not create competition for its own business.”
As Parks pointed out, the amount of “official credit that a given country receives from China” often depends on the “stringency” of mechanisms controlling the inflow of foreign capital.
– And Poland has implemented relatively solid control mechanisms, especially in relation to critical infrastructure. By 2023, all five categories of critical infrastructure – energy, water management, transport, telecommunications and health care – were subject to control procedures, Parks noted and added that, for example, Belarus does not have such barriers.
Parks noted that the amount of loans does not have to be a “reliable indicator” of Beijing's interest in building influence in a given country, and the relatively small loans that went to Poland do not mean that it is beyond China's interest.
Bogusz also admitted this. However, in his opinion, the report shows that we still have time to become aware of the threats related to Chinese economic and intelligence expansion, which have long been talked about in the West and which are only growing in Poland.
– Chinese investments may be a threat because they are aimed at eliminating local production and local competition for the Chinese industry – emphasized Bogusz. He added that Chinese capital is “fleeing” to places where there are highly developed financial markets and higher rates of return at a time when they are falling in China.
In the opinion of PAP's interlocutor, no Chinese entity will invest in Poland to introduce new technologies and not to build a new factory that would be competitive with Chinese business.
– For example, a Polish bicycle manufacturer, if it were bought by a Chinese company, would not be to invest money here and expand supply chains, but to take over its brand.distribution network, cancel all production in Poland, import parts and elements from China, from the local supply chain, and here, at most, assemble a ready-made bicycle for sale – explained Bogusz.
According to the expert, Poland defends itself “as best as it can” against this type of investment and even expects that the investments will bring new technologies to us, which is why it is not attractive for Chinese business.
Bogusz pointed out that Chinese “threats” are already emerging. The import of Chinese cars, electric and internal combustion, is growing, which means – according to him – that we are bringing “the entire Chinese supply chain” to Poland and “undermining” the Polish automotive industry, which is “connected to the supply and production chains of cars in Europe.”
In the expert's opinion, the enthusiasm with which Poles started buying Chinese cars, not caring about how much it affects the foundations of the Polish economy and often also their own jobs, shows that Polish society is not aware of Chinese threats, including intelligence ones.
– And before we know it, Chinese propaganda and disinformation will be operating here on a large scale. They are more and more present in Poland, of course to a much lesser extent than, for example, in Great Britain. They also lack appropriate facilities and experience, but they learn quickly, emphasized Bogusz.
Anna Gwozdowska (PAP)
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