Between 2000 and 2023, China provided loans and subsidies worth a total of $2.2 trillion. in 200 countries – such data are presented in a report by AidData, an American research institute from William and Mary University. The document indicates that Beijing directs its resources where it can strengthen its position in the international arena, even in countries that openly compete with China.
Bradley Parks, director of AidData and lead author of the report, emphasizes that China's “geoeconomic” strategy focuses on supporting domestic companies to gain key footholds in sensitive sectors abroad. In an interview with PAP, he explained that it is about controlling access to mineral resources, developing export opportunities and acquiring technologically advanced assets. According to Parks, most loans to rich countries go to critical infrastructure companies such as semiconductor makers.
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Poland in the shadow of Chinese investments
The most Chinese capital went to the United States ($202 billion), Russia ($172 billion) and Venezuela ($106 billion). In Europe, the largest recipients were Great Britain ($60 billion), Switzerland ($41 billion) and Germany ($33.4 billion). During this period, Poland received only USD 1.8 billion, which puts it far behind Hungary (USD 10.8 billion) or Belarus (USD 12 billion).
Michał Bogusz from OSW points out that Poland has not been a serious recipient of Chinese funds so far because Beijing perceives our country as a competitor in industry. “Poland, being a country with a strong industrial base, competes with Chinese companies in global supply chains,” notes the analyst. He adds that China invests where its money will not create competition for domestic business.
Bradley Parks points out that the amount of Chinese loans to a given country often depends on the mechanisms controlling the inflow of foreign capital. By introducing solid regulations regarding critical infrastructure, Poland limits the possibilities of Chinese investments in these sectors. For comparison, Belarus does not use such barriers.
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Chinese investments. Opportunity or threat?
However, in an interview with the Polish Press Agency, experts point out that lower loan amounts do not mean that China is not interested in Poland. Bogusz emphasizes that we still have time to become aware of the threats related to Chinese economic and intelligence expansion, which are only just beginning to be noticed in Poland. In his opinion, Chinese investments may lead to the elimination of local production and competition.
“Chinese companies do not invest in Poland to introduce new technologies or build competitive factories. Their goal is to take over brands and distribution networks, and production is moved to China” – explains Bogusz. An example would be the purchase of a Polish bicycle manufacturer, where instead of expanding local production, parts would be imported from China, and only assembly would take place in Poland.
The expert draws attention to the growing import of Chinese cars to Poland, which, in his opinion, “undermines” the domestic automotive industry linked to European supply chains. “Poles enthusiastically buy Chinese cars, not realizing how much it affects the Polish economy and jobs,” notes Bogusz.
According to the analyst, lack of awareness of the threats related to Chinese economic and intelligence expansion may lead to an increase in Chinese propaganda and disinformation in Poland. “China is increasingly present in our country, although on a smaller scale than in Great Britain. However, it is quickly gaining experience,” warns Bogusz.
