2025-11-17 09:43
publication
2025-11-17 09:43
The zloty started the week with a strong hit. The EUR/PLN exchange rate violated the lower limit of this year's sideways trend. If this signal is confirmed, the conclusions from technical analysis suggest an attack on the February minimum.
On Monday at 9:41 a.m. the euro rate was PLN 4.2217, down by almost half a grosz compared to Friday's reference rate. This means a violation (but not yet a break) of the key support line at PLN 4.2250. It was this level that stopped all attempts to strengthen the zloty for the previous six months.
An exit from the bottom of the sideways trend that has been ongoing since April in the range of PLN 4.2250-4.3050, based on technical analysis, would imply a downward movement equal to the width of this consolidation. That is, by 8 groszy, i.e. to the level of PLN 4.1450 per euro. This year's minimum of the euro exchange rate was recorded at more or less this level at the end of February.
– We believe that at the end of the week the strength of the zloty may return, pushing the EUR/PLN and USD/PLN rates to around 4.22 and towards the zone of 3.61-3.63, respectively – wrote PKO BP economists in the morning report.
The recent wave of zloty strengthening turned out to be a surprise for almost all analysts. Just two weeks ago, a weakening of the zloty and an increase in the euro rate to the area of PLN 4.30 seemed more likely. Especially since no fundamental information has recently appeared to support the appreciation of the Polish currency. One could even find factors weakening the zloty against the euro (e.g. lower than expected CPI inflation and a series of interest rate cuts at the National Bank of Poland).
It is also difficult to claim that the situation on global financial markets gives a special premium to the zloty compared to the euro. The EUR/USD rate continues to correct after its 4-year high set in September. The mood on Wall Street has also been quite far from optimistic lately.
In this context, it is worth mentioning that in the case of the main “zloty” pairs, only the situation on the euro-zloty pair can be considered a breakthrough. The dollar exchange rate was PLN 3.6370 and was still within the horizontal trend that had been in force since August.
The Swiss franc – although almost record strong in relation to the euro – cost PLN 4.5800 on the domestic market and remained in a sideways trend in the range of PLN 4.50-4.60. After 6-year lows, the British pound fell, valued by the market at PLN 4.7890.
K.K
