publication
2025-11-17 14:00
In October 2025, core inflation was the lowest in 6 years, but it still exceeded the expectations of most analysts. It is still not within the NBP's 2.5% target.
According to data published by the National Bank of Poland on November 17 inflation on a year-to-year basis
in October 2025 it was as follows:
- after excluding food and energy prices it was 3.0%. compared to 3.2 percent recorded in September.
Economists expected it to drop to 2.9%. - after excluding administered prices (subject to state control) it was 2.3%. compared to 2.5 percent a month earlier,
- after excluding the most volatile prices, it was 3.4 percent. compared to 3.7 percent a month earlier;
- the so-called 15 percent trimmed mean, which eliminates the impact of 15 percent. basket of prices with the lowest and highest dynamics, amounted to 2.6 percent. compared to 2.9 percent a month earlier.
– The indicator most often used by analysts is the inflation rate excluding food and energy prices. It shows the price trends of those goods and services on which the monetary policy pursued by the central bank has a relatively large impact. Energy prices (including fuels) are determined not on the domestic market, but on global markets, sometimes also under the influence of speculation. Food prices depend largely on, among others: on the weather and the current situation on the domestic and global agricultural market – added in the statement of the National Bank of Poland.
Core inflation finally fell to 3%
For the first time since November 2019, core inflation in Poland was at 3%. Moreover, October was the seventh month in a row in which core CPI inflation was within the band of permissible deviations (i.e. +/- 1 percentage point) from the 2.5% target of the National Bank of Poland. The National Bank of Poland has been outside the very purpose for exactly 6 years. The last time core inflation was within target was in October 2019. This is much longer than CPI inflation, which was on target in May last year.
Meanwhile, the “broad” consumer inflation rate (CPI) on an annual basis in October amounted to 2.8%. and it was the third month in a row with a reading below 3%. The inflation report published by the Central Statistical Office shows that the prices of food and non-alcoholic beverages continued to increase rapidly on an annual basis, by an average of 3.4%. more expensive than a year ago and, above all, services, with an increase of 5.4%. rdr.
“Domestic” inflation still exceeds the NBP target
Core inflation measures are used to assess the medium- and long-term trend in the increase in the general price level. It is usually assumed that core inflation is the part of inflation that is related to inflation expectations and demand pressure and which is not directly dependent on supply shocks.eliminating the prices of food, non-alcoholic beverages and energy, which are particularly sensitive to internal and external shocks, it was written in the methodology of NBP core inflation measures.
– The National Bank of Poland calculates four core inflation indicators every month, which helps to understand the nature of inflation in Poland. The CPI shows the average change in prices of a large basket of goods purchased by consumers. When calculating core inflation rates, price changes in various segments of this basket are analyzed. This allows us to better identify the sources of inflation and more accurately forecast its future trends. It also allows us to determine the extent to which inflation is permanent and the extent to which it is shaped, for example, by short-term price changes caused by unpredictable factors – we read in the NBP press release.
Food and non-alcoholic beverages as a group of goods in the Gusov CPI basket weighed 25.9% in 2025. (compared to 27.6% in 2024). In turn, energy prices accounted for 16.6%. weight of the consumer inflation index (compared to 17.9% in 2024). In 2025, the total share of food and energy prices is 42.4%. CPI basket. Core inflation, on the other hand, measures price changes in the remaining (i.e. approximately 60%) part of the inflation basket.
