Inflation will remain above 9% until June next year, a leading bank says. How to protect yourself from inflation when you have nothing to do?

“We estimate a persistent inflation that will remain at over 9% until June 2026”, concludes a report sent by UniCredit Bank, undertaken by senior economist Anca Negrescu and Alexander Ragea.

Romania is going through one of the most difficult periods for the economy of the population: high inflation, negative real interest rates, falling real wages and shrinking consumption. And the question that naturally arises – “How can I protect myself from inflation?” – becomes more frustrating precisely because, paradoxically, the solutions hardly exist.

Wages are rising, but not keeping up with prices

In September 2025, the average net salary rose to 5,443 lei, by 1% over August and by 4.1% compared to September 2024, according to Statistics. However, the real wage is falling, because inflation remains stuck at almost 10% and the nominal increase on the payslips is no longer covering it. The result is seen directly in the wallet: retail sales remained in negative territory, even if the decline has moderated.

“The decrease in consumption can be explained by the erosion of the purchasing power of consumers, as the annual dynamics of the real salary entered the negative territory starting from July”, UniCredit economists Anca Negrescu and Alexander Ragea show

The bank expects sales to continue to decline until mid-2026.

Who gains from inflation? The financial ecosystem

Several sectors have not only beaten inflation, they have outshone it. The champions are the auxiliary activities for financial intermediation, where the net profit jumped by more than 50% in one year — from 5,448 lei to 8,184 lei

This includes: stock brokers and SSIFs, clearing houses and the Central Depository, investment consultants, insurance brokers, damage assessors, traders, actuarial analysts, fund managers, etc.

“How to protect against inflation?” – the question to which no one has a convenient answer

Economist Ionuț Dumitru explicitly says what many avoid saying:

“How do we defend against inflation? We don't really have the tools at the moment”. With deeply negative real interest rates, deposits lose money, non-inflation-indexed government bonds lose money, and even many financial instruments lose their appeal.

A new mantra has emerged – gold. But Dumitru cuts short the enthusiasm: “Buying gold is not an investment within everyone's reach. Just like investing in shares is not within everyone's reach. They are an asset class, in general, with higher risk.”
In other words, anti-inflation weapons are either hard to come by, or risky, or both.

The NBR sees low inflation, but not very soon

“The central bank anticipates a modest decrease in inflation in the next three quarters, but on a higher trajectory than previously estimated,” another report, transmitted by BRD, shows.

“The downward correction will only begin in the fall of 2026 and will be slower than previously estimated,” the report said.
Only in the first quarter of 2027, inflation would enter the NBR target range (2.5% ±1%).

Adrian Codirlasu proposes an elegant solution to eliminate the temptation of inflation: issuing TIPS (Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities) – government securities protected against inflation.

How it works:

• The nominal value of the instruments is adjusted annually with the inflation rate
• If the government generates inflation, it must also pay it to bondholders
• Eliminates the temptation to use inflation as an “invisible tax”
• Principle: “If you inflate, you pay for it!” – a transparent fiscal accountability mechanism.

If implemented, it would probably be the most powerful anti-inflation tool ever made available to the public.

And yet, what is to be done…?

Inflation can seem scary, but with the right tools, you don't have to. Consider these strategies, recommended by Equifax:

• Review your budget. It is essential to review your budget during inflation. Update your budget to cut unnecessary expenses and find extra cash for the essentials.
• Change the way you spend your money. Flexibility becomes essential during periods of high inflation. If your favorite grocery brands are too expensive, try store brand instead. Find the best deals by comparing prices. Also, try to avoid major expenses like a new car, a big wedding, or expensive home renovations.
• Be smart about how you save. Your savings are an important buffer against rising costs. Make sure you put money aside for emergencies whenever you can. It also takes full advantage of rising interest rates that come with high inflation. Consider opening a high-yield savings account that has a better rate of return.

Conclusion: Inflation doesn't ask you if you have something to defend yourself with

Romania is entering a complex period: persistent inflation, deeply negative real interest rates, falling real wages, shrinking consumption, lack of simple protection instruments