Black clouds over Venezuela. Trump and Maduro are approaching a dangerous escalation. Experts draw worst-case scenarios with “catastrophic consequences”
Something is brewing in Venezuela. On Tuesday, November 11, the world's largest aircraft carrier, USS Gerald R. Ford, and a team of accompanying ships reached the coast of South America. In response, the ruling Nicolas Maduro announced a “mass mobilization” and threatened to use Russian missiles. He knows perfectly well that US President Donald Trump wants to overthrow him.
Although Washington emphasizes that it is not planning a full intervention, detailed variants of military action are already on the table. Each of them can start a chain reaction, the effects of which cannot be predicted.
The American president accuses Maduro of involvement in drug smuggling into the United States. For several weeks, he has been ordering the shooting down of suspicious boats allegedly transporting illegal substances with the help of fighters. About 70 people have died so far. Additionally, undercover CIA agents are tracking down smuggling networks in Venezuela itself.
Maduro's response to the appearance of US warships was to launch a “mass mobilization.” Venezuelan Defense Minister Vladimir Padrino Lopez announced that in the coming days approximately 200,000 soldiers of the land, air, sea and reserve forces will conduct extensive exercises. As the government in Caracas emphasizes, they are intended to be a decisive response to “imperialist threat” from the United States.
For several weeks now, residents of Venezuelan cities have noticed that there are more and more police and military patrols on the streets – the authorities are ready for any scenario and are preparing the country for a possible escalation of tensions.
Venezuelan armed forces during military exercises. Caracas, Venezuela September 20, 2025IVAN MCGREGOR / ANADOLU / ANADOLU VIA AFP / AFP
According to the New York Times three key scenarios are being analyzed in Washingtonwhich could lead to Maduro's removal from power:
special forces operationaimed at capturing or killing the dictator,
seizure of strategic facilitiessuch as airports or key elements of the oil industry; this, however, would pose a risk of civilian casualties,
precise raids on military installations linked to drug trafficking, intended to force Maduro to flee.
“Destroying the regime from the inside”
Philipp Adorf, an expert on the United States from the University of Bonn and an expert on Trump's policy, explains: – Trump is focusing on a combination of maximum economic pressure, targeted retaliatory actions and intelligence activities carried out quietly.
The goal is not to occupy Venezuela, but to destroy the regime from the inside – cutting off sources of financing and undermining loyalty among the dictator's entourage.
The idea is to increase the pressure on Maduro's closest people to overthrow him themselves, says Adorf.
As Anja Dargatz from the Foundation explains. Friedrich Ebert in Caracas, the possible fall of Maduro could have “disastrous consequences for Venezuela”. Neither the US administration nor the Venezuelan opposition has a plan for the “day after Maduro”. As a result, the country could be flooded with gangs and militias fighting for control over territory and resources.
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The consequences can be serious
Maduro has no intention of giving up. His army, one of the largest in Latin America, numbers over 150,000, according to official data. professional soldiers and 8 million reservists. However, experts have doubts: the real number of reservists may in fact be much smaller and amount to approximately one million at most, and their training leaves much to be desired.
Therefore, Maduro will most likely focus on guerrilla tactics and threaten to spread the conflict to the entire region.
Maduro's strongest weapon is not the army, but the ability to create serious tensions literally at the limits of US influence
– emphasizes Adorf.
According to the expert It doesn't take much to destabilize the region.
— Even a limited exchange of blows would lead to refugee movements, an increase in oil prices and tensions with China and Russia, Maduro's biggest allies, warns Adorf.
Although the war could burden the entire Western Hemisphere politically and economically, the expert believes that the conflict would not last long. — This would be contrary to Trump's program, as he promised fewer wars, less migration and lower prices.
I’m Ashley Davis as an editor, I’m committed to upholding the highest standards of integrity and accuracy in every piece we publish. My work is driven by curiosity, a passion for truth, and a belief that journalism plays a crucial role in shaping public discourse. I strive to tell stories that not only inform but also inspire action and conversation.
