“If we look at Russia's current capabilities and combat power, Russia could launch a small-scale attack on NATO territory as early as tomorrow,” Lieutenant General Alexander Solfrank, commander of the Bundeswehr's operational forces, said in an interview with Reuters. He stressed that these could be “small, quick, regionally limited movements, nothing big” because Russia is currently too closely involved in the fighting in Ukraine. However, he added that if Russia's military efforts continue, a large-scale attack could occur as early as 2029.
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What does the German general say about a potential Russian attack?
What factors influence the possibility of an attack by Russia?
What forces does Russia have according to General Sollfrank?
What actions does NATO recommend in response to the threat from Russia?
The Bundeswehr commander talks about Russia's goals
General Sollfrank stated that despite failures and serious losses (including the Black Sea Fleet) in Ukraine, the Russian Air Force retains high combat power, and its nuclear and missile forces remain almost intact. He added that the risk is also increased by the fact that Russia plans to increase its land forces – up to 1.5 million soldiers. It also has enough tanks to “conduct a limited attack tomorrow.”
The German officer identified three factors that, in his opinion, make a Russian attack possible. It's about its military strength, military achievements and leadership. “These three factors lead me to the conclusion that a Russian attack is within the realm of possibility. Whether this happens or not depends largely on our own behavior,” he added in an interview with Reuters, referring to NATO's “deterrence” efforts. He emphasized that NATO countries should recognize elements of Russia's hybrid war (including the appearance of Russian drones over European countries) as part of a strategy that also includes the war with Ukraine. In his opinion, Russia's goal is both to provoke NATO and “to fuel insecurity, spread fear, cause damage, spy and test the resilience of the alliance.”
