If the elections were to be held next Sunday, The Civic Coalition would win it with 28.4 percent. This is the result of a survey conducted among one thousand Poles on November 3-5. This means a decline in the ratings of the main party in the ruling coalition by 0.4 percentage points. compared to the previous survey and would mean the loss of the government.
By as much as 2.9 percentage points. Law and Justice's ratings improved to 23.6%. If we were to analyze these results in terms of the recent conflicts between PiS and Konfederacja, where Sławomir Mentzen launched an attack on Jarosław Kaczyński's group after his ideas announced at the convention, the conclusion would be that PiS is using this conflict to its advantage. Mentzen's gestures towards KO may also be important. Confederation's ratings dropped by as much as 2.3 percentage points. up to 10.9 percent
The conflict between PiS and the Confederation is well received by the other Confederation, i.e. Grzegorz Braun's Confederation of the Polish Crown. Its ratings increased to 9.4%. with 8.5 percent earlier and the “crossing” between the two right-wing parties is getting closer. The combined ratings of both Confederations dropped by 1.4 percentage points. up to 20.3 percent
Apart from the above-mentioned parties, no other party would get into the Sejm. Although the left improved its ratings by as much as 1.3 percentage points. it achieved a result of 4.8%, which is below the threshold. Right behind it is Razem, which also improved its polls, but by 0.9 percentage points. up to 4.2 percent
Outside the Sejm there would also be: Polska 2050 (2.3 percent, +0.5 percentage points) and PSL (2.1 percent, +0.7 percentage points).
Translating these results into parliamentary seats, we get the following structure: KO 194 seats, PiS 156, Konfederacja 61, KKP 49. For PiS, however, the new balance of power would mean the loss of as many as 37 MPs, and the Civic Coalition would gain the same number. The biggest winners of hypothetical earlier elections would be both Confederations, but the former would gain 45 MPs compared to the current situation, and the latter (KKP) would gain 46.
