publication
2025-11-07 11:23
The beginning of November brought a further increase in fuel prices in Poland. As a result, both gasoline and diesel oil have been the most expensive since the end of July. Looking at what is happening in refineries, we can expect further price increases at gas stations in the coming days.
In the first week of November, the average retail price of unleaded 95 gasoline was at PLN 5.91/l and was three cents higher than a week ago – according to BM Reflex data. The price of diesel oil, on average across the country, increased by PLN 7/l PLN 6.07/l. The last time Pb95 and diesel were this expensive was at the end of July, more than three months ago. Autogas was refueled after an average of PLN 2.63/l, so a penny per liter more expensive than a week ago.
It is worth remembering here that we are writing about average prices throughout the country. Prices at individual stations may vary by up to several dozen cents per liter, depending on the location and the strength of local competition. There are still stations where we can fill up with gasoline well below the national average. Additionally, these rates do not take into account discounts and periodic promotions that distributors usually introduce during holiday or holiday periods.
Despite recent increases, fuel prices remain slightly lower than they were a year ago. The average retail price of Pb95 petrol is still 15 gr/l lower than a year ago, and diesel fuel is only 4 gr/l lower. However, autogas is clearly cheaper than at the beginning of November 2024, and we fill it up with an average of PLN 46/l cheaper.
Orlen has raised prices and is making excellent profits
Everything indicates that this is not the end of price increases at gas pumps. This is because wholesale prices have gone up in recent days – especially for diesel oil. On November 7, Orlen offered Ekodiesel fuel at PLN 4,869/m3, which after VAT is PLN 5.99/l. This is 11 groszy per liter more expensive than a week ago and already 43 groszy more expensive than three weeks ago.
The price increases at the Płock refinery are the result of a drastic increase in diesel prices on world stock exchanges. On Friday, a ton of “diesel” cost USD 804 on the London ICE, while in mid-October it was less than USD 620/t. If this state of affairs continues, price increases in retail seem inevitable.
The situation is much better on the gasoline market, which is still priced below two dollars per gallon on the New York Stock Exchange. In October, this fuel was valued at as much as USD 1.74/gallon and was the cheapest since February 2021. However, in Orlena's Friday price list, Eurosuper 95 gasoline was listed at PLN 4,515/m3 net, i.e. approximately PLN 5.55/l after adding 23% VAT. This rate is clearly (i.e. PLN 36/l) lower than the average retail price and therefore the latter is unlikely to increase in the near future.
It is also worth adding that in recent months Orlen has significantly improved its refining margins, which in October reached the highest level since February 2024. Orlen's margins increased at all levels, but mainly due to improved results from cracks in diesel and jet fuel after disruptions in Russian refineries and exports (attacks by Ukrainian troops). Light crude refining margins reached two-year highs across Europe in September.
As always, it should be noted that fuels could be much cheaper if it were not for taxes imposed by the authorities. From every liter of gasoline or diesel oil purchased, over 50% goes to the state. Without paying tribute to the government, we could fill up with Pb95 petrol for approximately PLN 2.70/l, diesel for approximately PLN 3.05/l, and autogas for approximately PLN 1.50/l. The difference between the pylon rates and the above prices goes to the state treasury.
