“American consumers remain cautious in sentiment, but remain economically strong and driving the U.S. economy.” – he said Matthew Shaypresident and CEO of the NRF. “We are optimistic about this year's holiday season and expect consumers will continue to look for savings in non-essential categories so they can spend more on gifts for loved ones.” – he added.
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Strong consumer despite inflation and tariffs
As he emphasized Mark Mathewschief economist of the German Federal Republic, the American economy shows “surprising resistance” despite persistent inflation and trade uncertainty. – The tariffs drove up prices, but sellers tried not to pass on the entire cost to customersdue to the unclear situation in international trade, he noted.
The federation also predicts that stores will hire people this season from 265 to 365 thousand seasonal workers – less than a year ago, when this number was 442 thousand. Some employment could have been moved earlier to cover October promotional campaigns.
Mathews added that retailers will be cautious with further recruitmentwaiting for demand data during the season. One of the main threats remains federal government shutdown (shutdown)which affects public spending and may translate into decline in income in the private sectorthus limiting consumption.
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An American's Christmas budget: almost $900
According to a separate study by the NRF i Prosper Insights & AnalyticsAmericans plan to spend on average this year $890.49 per person for gifts, food, decorations and other holiday expenses. This the second highest result in the 23-year history of the study.
The NRF forecast is based on the analysis of a number of economic indicators – from consumer spending and disposable incomeafter inflation, employment and wages. The organization defines the holiday season as a period of time from November 1 to December 31 and excludes sales at car showrooms, gas stations and restaurants to focus on a key retail segment.
