For the United States, this meeting is an opportunity to re-strengthen its influence in a region that has long remained in the sphere of influence of Moscow and Beijing. This is an opportunity for Central Asian governments to secure political recognition, investment and influence in the delicate game of balance between great powers.
— Some Central Asian countries are demanding greater U.S. involvement — especially investment and deeper diplomatic contacts — Andrew D'Anieri, deputy director of the Eurasia Center at the Atlantic Council, tells the Kyiv Post.
— If the C5+1 presidential summit is able to accelerate both of these processes, it will be a strategically important moment for Washington and Central Asia, as some of these countries seek to reduce their dependence on Russia and China, he adds.
U.S. involvement in Central Asia has traditionally been sporadic—episodic focus after crises in Afghanistan or tensions with Moscow, followed by long periods of diplomatic neglect.
Trump's return in his second term to “C5+1” diplomacy – a framework concept initiated under Barack Obama – signals a desire to transform this pattern into something more permanent.
The administration is hopeful, according to senior U.S. officials diversify access to energy and mineralsreduce the risk of bottlenecks on Eurasian transit routes, and expand U.S. trade presence in the region.
However, much will depend on whether Trump's summits translate into lasting commitments or remain largely symbolic.
— Washington has a habit of appearing when it is convenient for it, a former American diplomat tells the Kyiv Post. — The question is whether it will be different this time.
Trump is treading on thin ice
The summit takes place in context deepening Russian-Chinese cooperation in Eurasia. Since Moscow's invasion of Ukraine, Russia's economic and logistical ties with its southern neighbors have only tightened as sanctions have forced it to redirect trade through Central Asia.
At the same time, China's Belt and Road initiative continues to transform regional infrastructure, consolidating Beijing's economic dominance from Almaty [największe miasto Kazachstanu] after Ashgabat [stolica Turkmenistanu].
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Trump, whose relations with both Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping remain under the microscope, realizes he is treading on thin ice.
While his advisers talk about “reducing overdependence” on Moscow and Beijing, few in Washington expect a direct confrontation.
— It's difficult to answer this question, says an experienced American diplomat, Richard Kauzlarich, who in 1993-94 served as deputy special representative of the president for new independent countries during Bill Clinton's administration.
Given Trump's close relationship with Putin and Xi, I cannot imagine that he would want to use this meeting to undermine the interests of Russia and China in Central Asia. However, it may try to connect the Central Corridor [trasa handlowa z Chin do Europy przez Azję Centralną, Morze Kaspijskie, Kaukaz i Turcję] with the TRIPP Corridor [Trump Route to International Peace and Prosperity, czyli Droga Trumpa do Międzynarodowego Pokoju i Dobrobytu to projekt, który proponuje połączenie regionów Kaukazu Południowego, Korytarza Środkowego oraz Bliskiego Wschodu].
– emphasizes Kauzlarich in an interview for Kyiv Post.
“The United States may try to finalize a deal for Kazakh uranium, but I'm not sure the region has much to offer in the energy field,” he adds.
Indeed, one senior official familiar with preparations for the summit says Washington sees “strategic connectivity” — expanding transport routes through the South Caucasus and Caspian Sea — as a real long-term benefit.
This corridor, called the Central Corridor, connects China with Europe through Central Asia and the South Caucasus, bypassing both Russia and Iran.
The issue of Ukraine
It is unclear to what extent the summit will influence Russia's war in Ukraine. Central Asian leaders are approaching the conflict cautiously. On the one hand, they refuse to recognize the annexation of Ukrainian territories by Russia; on the other hand, they avoid openly allying with Kiev or the West.
Trump's own ambivalent attitude towards helping Ukraine further complicates the situation.
— I don't think the summit will have a significant impact on the situation in Ukraine, Kauzlarich says, adding that “it will depend on how Trump feels during the meeting with other summit participants.”
But simply bringing five post-Soviet states to Washington — at a time when Kiev continues to plead for further Western support — may have symbolic significance. Analysts say this could subtly strengthen U.S. involvement across the former Soviet Union, even if Ukraine itself is not at the center of the discussion.
National image and personal diplomacy
For Trump, this meeting has more than just geopolitical significance. It comes as his administration seeks to promote a more business-oriented foreign policy.
The White House has suggested a package of investment incentives for American companies in the mining, logistics and energy industries. Trump may also play a mediating role in resolving regional border disputes between Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan. The move could improve his image as a negotiator abroad.
“He needs another war to fulfill his quest to win the Nobel Peace Prize,” jokes Kauzlarich.
However, experts warn against too high expectations. — Central Asian leaders are pragmatic, argues an analyst from Washington who has advised many administrations. — They will benefit from American investment and attention, but they will not cut ties with Moscow or Beijing to get it.
A fragile opportunity
Trump's November 6 summit may produce concrete results, but it may also disappear from the long list of American diplomatic experiments in Central Asia.
But in a region where symbolism often matters as much as substance, the very convening of the C5+1 meeting in Washington sends a message: the United States still wants a place at the Eurasian table.
— We don't expect miracles. But we expect that the United States will remain interested this time, says one senior Central Asian diplomat privately in an interview with the Kyiv Post.
I’m Ashley Davis as an editor, I’m committed to upholding the highest standards of integrity and accuracy in every piece we publish. My work is driven by curiosity, a passion for truth, and a belief that journalism plays a crucial role in shaping public discourse. I strive to tell stories that not only inform but also inspire action and conversation.
