America returns to “cannon diplomacy.” The US is counting on Venezuela to topple the regime in Cuba
The United States has deployed its largest military deployment to the Caribbean region since the 1962 missile crisis, fueling speculation of possible intervention against Venezuela. According to official information, ten warships and approximately 10,000 troops are already in the area, supported by a naval group led by the aircraft carrier USS Gerald R. Ford.
USS Gerald R. Ford aircraft carrier sent to the Caribbean/PHOTO: Archive
The administration of President Donald Trump claims that the operation is aimed at combating drug trafficking and preventing their entry into American territory – a threat qualified by the White House as “the equivalent of an armed attack”.
However, American diplomats and analysts say that the real objective is to remove the government of Nicolás Maduro and cut off the flow of Venezuelan oil to Cuba – a strategy designed, in the view of the Republicans, to cause the collapse of the regime in Havana, writes Foreign Policy.
A new strategy with old echoes
The plan would be to revive a failed initiative in 2019, then promoted by former national security adviser John Bolton. This time, the leadership of the operation is in the hands of Secretary of State and National Security Adviser Marco Rubio, one of the staunchest supporters of a policy of “maximum pressure” on the regimes in Caracas and Havana.
In recent weeks, US forces have destroyed more than a dozen suspected drug boats in the Caribbean Sea and Pacific Ocean, resulting in more than 60 deaths, according to the Pentagon.
“We will kill the people who bring drugs into our country. The next step will be on land,” Trump said in late October, suggesting that targets on Venezuelan soil could soon be targeted.
According to the Miami Herald, the president authorized covert CIA operations inside Venezuela, designating Maduro as the leader of the so-called Cartel of the Sun (Cartel de los Soles), considered an international terrorist organization. The US Department of Justice is offering a $50 million reward for information that could lead to the arrest of the Venezuelan leader.
Implications for Cuba
Venezuela remains Cuba's closest ally and a key source of oil at preferential prices. A possible military strike against Caracas could affect thousands of Cuban citizens who work there in the medical sector, as well as military and intelligence advisers.
Cuban diplomats have already warned, publicly and in private discussions, that an intervention against Venezuela would directly endanger Cuba's security.
Although the relationship between the two countries has cooled amid Venezuela's deep economic crisis, Havana continues to depend in part on Venezuelan oil. However, this dependence has been significantly reduced: if in 2014 Cuba received more than 100,000 barrels per day, in 2024 supplies have decreased to approximately 32,000 barrels per day.
The drop in Venezuelan production, compounded by the collapse in oil prices, has prompted Havana to look for alternatives – with Russia and Mexico supplying additional quantities at concessional prices.
A risky strategy
US officials insist the actions are aimed at drug trafficking, but critics point out that a confrontation could destabilize the entire region.
Former diplomats and foreign policy experts warn that an attack on Venezuela would spark a new humanitarian crisis, shake up energy markets and create “ungoverned spaces” exploited by criminal groups.
At the same time, UN human rights officers and organizations such as Amnesty International and Human Rights Watch have already denounced the US strikes on Venezuelan and Colombian vessels, calling them violations of international law.
Criticism has also come from Republican congressmen and the presidents of Mexico and Colombia, Claudia Sheinbaum and Gustavo Petro, who warn that a military escalation could jeopardize regional cooperation in the fight against drugs.
A changing geopolitical balance
In the long term, analysts estimate that such an intervention could push the South American states even closer to China, which has already consolidated its economic presence in the region.
“In the Western Hemisphere, President Trump is beginning to act like Netanyahu in the Middle East or Putin in the former Soviet Union — a right-wing leader claiming a sphere of influence where he plays by his own rules.” wrote former national security adviser Ben Rhodes.
For Washington, the short-term result could be presented as a victory. In the long term, however, the image of the United States as a hegemonic power risks being consolidated, with significant costs for its influence in Latin America.
