publication
2025-11-03 09:00
October brought a further increase in the PMI for the Polish manufacturing sector. This gives hope that industrial stagnation will come to an end and the production sector will finally get back on its feet.
The PMI index for the Polish manufacturing sector reached its value in October 48.8 points
– reported the S&P Global analytical company. It was the highest reading in half a year. The median of economists' forecasts was to expect a reading of 48.6 points compared to 48.0 points recorded a month earlier. We can therefore talk about a small but positive surprise.
This was the fourth consecutive month of growth in the Polish PMI. However, it still has values below 50 points, which, according to the methodology of this study, is synonymous with a decline in economic activity in the Polish manufacturing sector. However, a growing PMI below 50 points signals thatthis egress was slower than in the previous months.
– October data showed slower declines in both production and new orders. Moreover, the purchased items index, supported by the strongest business optimism since March, returned to growth territory – we read in the latest S&P Global report.
The Polish PMI remained below 50 points for the sixth month in a row, signaling a decline in economic activity in the manufacturing sector. According to this measure, the decline occurred already in May, when the PMI dropped completely unexpectedly from 50.2 points to 47.1 points. Back then, it was a signal that we had gone from a short-term recovery (because for the previous three months the PMI had been slightly higher than 50 points) to a recession again. However, since July, the Polish PMI has been climbing upwards, although it has not yet returned to values signaling recovery in industry.
In October, four out of five sub-indexes supported the growth of the main PMI. The exception was the employment rate, which declined at an accelerated rate. Production volume has stabilized. There have also been reports of resumption of customer inquiries, which raises hopes for improvement in the coming months. The index of new orders also showed their slowest decline since April. Export sales also decreased at the slowest rate since April.
– It is encouraging that the index of input purchases returned to growth territory in October. Although the pace of expansion was slow, it recorded the highest value in three and a half years. This appears to reflect greater optimism about future production requirements and, in some cases, plans to replenish depleted stocks. Moreover, economic activity forecasts for the coming year have improved for the third time in the last four, said Tim Moore, economic director at S&P Global Market Intelligence, in a commentary on October data.
Meanwhile, a lower level of new orders contributed to a further reduction in the production backlog in the manufacturing sector in October. Moreover, the lack of pressure on processing capacity encouraged companies to delay the process of replacing departing employees. As a result, the latest surveys showed a significant decline in employment, which was faster than in September.
The PMI shows the condition of the industry and is calculated on the basis of five sub-indexes:
- new orders,
- production,
- employment,
- delivery time,
- inventory of purchased items.
Decreasing readings below 50 pts they signal an acceleration in the rate of decline in economic activity. Increasing (month by month) but remaining below 50
ptsmean a slowdown in the rate of decline. Only readings above 50 points indicate an improvement in the economic situation. This indicator ranges from 0 to 100 points and has been developed since 1998.
However, for several months we have been observing a quite clear discrepancy between the PMI and the “hard” data from the Central Statistical Office on industrial production. While the former indicates a clear decline, the reports of the statistical office show an increase in the value of industrial production sold.
