California wants to spite Trump. The president is not in debt
The oversight — as in New Jersey, another heavily Democratic state — will take place at the request of state Republican Party officials. Gavin Newsom, the Democratic governor of California, called it an act of voter intimidation.
But beyond the oversight itself, the White House has withdrawn from the campaign against Democrats' efforts to redraw California's electoral map. Given Democrats' strong lead in the polls, he seems rather resigned. As his allies tell us, President Donald Trump still believes he has an edge over Gavin Newsom on more substantive issues.
Trump, who is unlikely to waste an opportunity to argue with Newsom, one of his main opponents, in August promised to file a lawsuit against California over redistricting. He didn't keep that promise.
Press conference of Gavin Newsom, Governor of California. Sacramento, October 28, 2025PAP/EPA/ANDRI TAMBUNAN
He has not commented on the matter since then, confident that this is the long-term solution crime and illegal immigration in California are his weapons in the fight against political opponents. For Republicans, the campaign to change electoral districts in California seems to be a lost cause.
— The president will never shy away from fighting California, we all know that. Do I think there are other fights like immigration or fighting crime? When it comes to fighting Gavin Newsom, I don't think fighting gerrymandering is in the top three, says a person familiar with the White House strategy, who was granted anonymity to provide his latest thoughts.
It is not profitable for Trump to run a campaign doomed to failure
On the occasion of the battle over changing the electoral map – which broke out in California after the topic of gerrymandering was raised by Republicans in Texas – Trump flirted with the idea sending the National Guard to San Francisco. He abandoned the idea after a conversation with Daniel Lurie, the city's Democratic mayor, and after his friends and tech sector leaders advised him against the idea. Trump suggested he would give Lurie “a chance to see if he can turn things around” in the city without intervention from the federal government, putting the liberal anti-Trump city to the test.
While Trump's broader offensive on crime and immigration continues elsewhere, in large part he remained silent on California gerrymandering and Newsom's role in leading the charge against the White House.
Meanwhile, other Republicans with ties to the Golden State came to the fore. But the party structure there — led by former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy — lags far behind Newsom in fundraising.
“I think Republicans are trying to make it a local issue,” says Mimi Walters, a former GOP congresswoman. “Democrats are trying to make it a national issue.” Unfortunately for Republicans, there are not as many Republicans as Democrats in our stateand Democrats have money behind them for Proposition 50.
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This bill appears to be working in Democrats' favor. California voters support the measure, according to a recent CBS News poll 75 percent said they were voting “yes” to oppose Trumpwhile only 41 percent said it would vote for the change to support Newsom. The measure leads in this poll and others.
And while some Republicans in California would welcome his involvement, Trump would have little political benefit from being associated with a losing campaign.
“I assume Kevin McCarthy and President Trump are in agreement, but the White House's lack of involvement at this point indicates that the No campaign is barely breathing,” said a person familiar with California Republicans' thinking. — Two weeks ago, if President Trump had been more active and excited 20 percent. permanent MAGA voters in California, it could make a difference in this low-turnout election.
Hannah Milgrom, campaign spokeswoman Yes on 50asked why Trump isn't actively pushing against Proposition 50, replies: “Donald Trump is weak and he knows we will expose him for who he really is: a loser.”
Republicans will focus on other states
Attorney General Pam Bondi announced last Friday that the Department of Justice will monitor polling places on November 4 to maintain the “highest standards of election integrity”. “We will commit the resources necessary to give Americans the fair, free and transparent elections they deserve,” she said.
Donald Trump and Pam Bondi, US Attorney General. Washington, October 15, 2025EPA/JIM LO SCALZO / POOL / PAP
Trump did not comment on election monitoring during his trip to Asia. However, Newsom said that Trump administration 'should not interfere with next month's vote'.
Instead of fighting Democrats' idea for an electoral map in California — where Trump lost to Kamala Harris by more than 20 percentage points in 2024 — Trump advisers are focusing on changes in redder states to tip the scales in his favor.
– I think it's the best field we have, even if [Propozycja 50] passes, there will be Florida, Texas, North Carolina – says a person familiar with the White House strategy.
Another person close to Trump said the president knows he “still doesn't play well in blue states like California,” adding that he is also confident in Republicans' chances of winning the broader fight on gerrymandering.
Republicans in Texas and North Carolina are taking steps to gerrymander and gain seats for themselves. Under pressure from Trump, Republicans in Indiana tried to pass redistricting changes midway through the election cycle, but they don't seem to have enough votes. The California measure, meanwhile, was Democrats' response to the Texas map change plan, which Gov. Greg Abbott signed into law in August.
— This is certainly a very nationwide, politicized special election. And I think one of the key elements is that it really is a sort of early referendum on the Trump administration says Blake Zante, director of The Maddy Institute, a nonpartisan California public policy group.
— California is gerrymandering places in response to mid-decade changes in Texas. So I think people are very aware of the motives behind it. “I also think it's no secret that Governor Newsom also has national ambitions, so that's certainly always in the background,” Zante added.
