Is Putin afraid of a coup? “He has a lot to worry about.”

A sharp increase in the budget deficit, interest rates and gasoline prices are just a few reasons to worry for Russian leader Vladimir Putin, the British daily Telegraph calculated on Sunday. According to the newspaper, the Kremlin ruler is also afraid of a coup.

The article recalled that in October, the Federal Security Service of Russia (FSB) accused Mikhail Khodorkovsky, a Kremlin critic and former Russian oligarch, and 22 members of the Russian Anti-War Committee of planning a coup. Khodorkovsky, currently in London, argues that these accusations are lies.

– This shows the Kremlin's paranoia – said John Herbst, former US ambassador to Ukraine, in an interview with the Telegraph. In his opinion, “Putin is looking for enemies to strengthen his regime.”

The British daily assessed that “the Russian economy is starting to falter”, as evidenced by, among others, high interest rates, paralyzing the activities of enterprises, and a sharp increase in the costs of government loans. Words recalled Russian Economy Minister Maxim Reshetnikov, warning in June that the country was “on the brink of recession.”

The Telegraph noted that “small pockets of protest are emerging.” The newspaper noted that in mid-October, hundreds of people gathered in a square in St. Petersburg to sing a banned song calling for the overthrow of Putin.

At the same time, Ukraine aggressively intensified drone attacks on Russian oil refineries, which had a negative impact, among others, on gasoline production. As calculated, since January, Ukrainian troops have attacked 21 of Russia's 38 largest refinerieswhere crude oil is processed into products such as gasoline. This led to restrictions in supplies and an increase in gasoline prices by 40%. from the beginning of 2025. As reported, the authorities have introduced gasoline rationing in the Ukrainian Crimea they occupy, and small gas stations in Siberia have been closed.

The Ukrainian attacks occur at a time of stagnation in the Russian economy. As reported, in 2024 Russia's real GDP increased by 4.3%. This year, the International Monetary Fund forecasts growth of only 0.6%.

According to analyzes conducted by Craig Kennedy, a historian at Harvard University, about 23 percent loans granted by Russian banks were intended for arms companies and have not yet been repaid. The analyst estimates their value at no less than USD 190 billion. “This represents approximately 37% of the annual state budget,” noted the Telegraph.

Russia is also seeing a sharp increase in its budget deficit. “Since the beginning of the year, the Russian Ministry of Finance has raised its deficit target for 2025 to 2.6%. GDP, which is more than five times more than the 0.5% expected at the beginning of the year – and this is by far the largest annual deficit since the pandemic. In cash terms, this would mean a deficit of 5.7 trillion rubles, or 50 billion pounds,” the daily calculated, adding that the actual deficit would probably be even larger.

The Telegraph noted that at the same time, US President Donald Trump tightened the screws by announcing new sanctions against the two largest Russian oil companies on Wednesday.

– For the first time in three and a half years, Russia is really feeling the effects of the crisis – said British historian Timothy Ash in an interview with the daily. – I think there is some panic (in the Kremlin – PAP) – he added.

Marta Zabłocka (PAP)

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