The polls that have so far measured the intention to vote for the Capital City Hall favor the social democrat Daniel Băluță, who could be nominated by his colleagues to run. Cătălin Drula, the announced candidate of the USR, gives signals that he could have an ace up his sleeve, the support of the former mayor, Nicușor Dan, re-elected with 48.4% of the votes, but who now occupies the position of president. Analysts show, however, that the elements that will influence the race will be completely and completely different.
Daniel Băluță, Ciprian Ciucu, Cătălin Drula, Anca Alexandrescu PHOTO Archive
The government has officially established the organization of the elections for the General City Hall of the Capital on Sunday, December 7. However, the campaign will be halved. So it will start on November 2 and end 24 hours before the polls.
The announcements between the candidates started a long time ago. Some, however, unofficially state their intention to run. This is the case of PNL and PSD, where the sector mayors Daniel Băluță and Ciprian Ciucu, must first pass the internal vote of the parties. In other cases, things seem to be already decided. Until now, Cătălin Drula, former minister and former head of USR, has announced his candidacy, who states that he has the support of President Nicușor Dan.
Other announced candidates are Ana Ciceală, from the SENS party, a group broken from USR, the former mayor of sector 3, Liviu Negoiță, Virgil Alexandru Zidaru (Makaveli) and the TV producer, Anca Alexandrescu.
The portrait of the ideal candidate for Bucharest
A candidate with administrative experience
Political science professor Radu Carp points out that a perfect candidate for the citizens of Bucharest can be found in the features already ticked off by those elected in the vote given a year ago:
“I look at what the people of Bucharest have voted for so far. That is, what they voted for in the sector town halls and what they voted for in the general town hall in 2024. They voted for a rather strange combination. People preferred the independent candidate, but with experience. That is, Nicușor Dan was not in his first term and he was voted in. And even if he did not have a party behind him, he was assimilated to the one who already has experience in local administration.
If I also look at the sectors, about the same. That is, he was voted in sector 5, Piedone, just because he bore his father's name and then he bore this independent stamp. Mr. Ciucu was voted for the second time, although PNL had a lower score in Capital, he was voted by individual and was seen more as an independent. Baluță was not perceived as the typical PSD candidate. People vote for people not necessarily a political party, but people who have experience in local government. This seems to me to be the ideal profile that is validated by the electorate.
If I look at the candidates, there would be three people who would correspond: Mr. Băluță, obviously, was voted three times, Mr. Ciucu and Mr. Bujduveanu. They correspond to the profile of candidates who can say that they do not necessarily depend on the party”.
A candidate with a long-term plan
Political analyst Ion M. Ioniță shows that the people of Bucharest should ask more from their mayor, namely a well-prepared development plan, which would, moreover, constitute the portrait of the ideal mayor.
“I think that beyond these clichés about the management of the city, which in fact are not even based on reality, because my opinion is that a general mayor does not deal with sweeping the streets and some potholes. These are the jobs of the district mayors. A general mayor, according to the job description, has completely different jobs, namely to think for Bucharest a Capital in perspective.
That is, to present a plan to the people of Bucharest, how Bucharest will look in 4 or 8 years, usually 8 years, because 4 years is not enough, but a plan to start immediately and to propose to the people of Bucharest as a medium and long-term perspective, addressing the development of the city. How the city will develop strategically and how it will solve the structural problems of the city, which are pollution, lack of space, traffic, but the most important is the long-term development vision of the city. We have a community of 2 million people, which means more than 10% of the population living in Romania. I think this should be the real robot portrait of a mayor.” explains Ion M. Ioniță.
The importance of political support
In July, Cătălin Drula published a picture with the current president, something that sparked the first controversies regarding the elections for the Capital City Hall. The head of state, questioned at the time about choosing a successor, said only that “someone with transport expertise is welcome in this competition”claiming that Drula fulfills the profile of General Mayor of the Capital.
The professor of political sciences, Radu Carp, however, shows that, in addition to the lack of importance of a party at the back in this electoral race, the support of the president does not seem to matter too much:
“Mr. Drula tried to quantify this pseudo advantage (no – the support of Nicușor Dan) from the moment he launched his candidacy, but that did not help him to have more percentages than expected. Dan didn't do anything else, except that he met once and didn't contradict the fact that he would support him. But otherwise he was not directly involved. And there's no way he can get involved directly, in my opinion.”
The unexpected element, the frustration of society
“The elections in Bucharest, which will take place in just 45 days, can turn from a major test of democratic resilience into the unfortunate lightning rod of a violent storm in society that will be taken advantage of by the most radical of radicals. (…) Ne may hit, much faster than we imagine, a historical storm in the middle of which, a Georgescu or a Simion will seem to us simple trial balloons released by some at Russian roulette or in the game of local political bullshit“, warns INSCOP director, sociologist Remus Ștefureac.
He draws attention to several data that indicate citizens' dissatisfaction with political leaders in recent months: 70% of Romanians say that the state bears a large part of the blame for their current situation, another 70% believe that the law is not applied equally to all citizens, and 75% believe that the success of some is the result of a corrupt or unfair system.
“A possible social explosion will raise a huge wave of hatred in the population that will be easily ridden by any ultra-radical hostile actor who wants to strategically undermine Romania, destroy the democratic regime and even take control of the country”, says Remus Ștefureac.
Moreover, “populist approaches are catching on in this period”, explains the political analyst Ion M. Ioniță, emphasizing that, despite the polls so far, which place the coalition candidates in the first places, “things are not nailed down to the point where we can say that there would be front-runners. Theoretically yes, but practically, until the votes are counted, we can't anticipate too much.”
The fact that we will have a smaller campaign is a good thing, after a full election year, the political analyst says.
