“Fear weakens empires.” The head of the presidential administration in Kiev warns that Russia may suffer the fate of the USSR
Russia could reach a collapse similar to that of the Soviet Union, says Andrii Iermak, the head of the Presidential Administration of Ukraine. In an interview with the publication RBC-Ukraine, he describes the Russian Federation as a “distorted” version of the USSR – a political structure imposed through fear and violence, which, in his opinion, is beginning to falter.
Andri Iermak, head of the presidential administration of Ukraine/PHOTO: EPA/EFE
“The war has already reached their territory. Every empire, every dictatorship, rests on violence. Some obey out of interest, others out of fear. But fear, sooner or later, melts away”says Iermak. “When an empire begins to shake and crack at the joints, completely unexpected scenarios arise. And that moment is not far away.”
“A Parody of the Soviet Union”
According to the Ukrainian official, the Russian Federation was built on a myth of voluntary unity between peoples, but the reality is completely different.
“Formally, Russia claims to be a union of nations. But how voluntary is this union? Not all regions entered willingly – and not all are happy there. The Russian Federation is a parody of the Soviet Union. And I do not rule out that it will follow the same path to collapse.” said Iermak.
The Soviet Union, a communist state that existed between 1922 and 1991, brought together 15 republics under the control of Moscow. Economic crises, competition with the West and independence movements within the bloc eventually led to the dissolution of the USSR and the emergence of sovereign states, including Ukraine.
A world that no longer believes in Moscow's “friendship”.
Yermak also noted that while the Kremlin often presents its foreign policy as one of “friendship,” Russia's image on the global stage has been deeply eroded.
“No one wants the victory of the aggressor state. Everyone – including China – understands very well what a Russia with unlimited power would mean.” the Ukrainian official said.
“The system is resilient, but not invincible”
Yermak's analysis follows comments made in August by the head of Ukraine's military intelligence service, Kirilo Budanov, who warned that while an eventual breakup of Russia is theoretically possible, it is not a realistic short-term scenario.
“If we talk hypothetically about a defeat of Russia and a possible fragmentation – yes, it is possible. But at the moment, such a prospect is unrealistic”said Budanov.
He added that Russia's domestic system is built to survive any change of leadership. “Even if the president is gone, the structure doesn't collapse. It's made so that whoever comes after remains in the same ideological paradigm.”
A deepening fissure
While Kiev talks about weaknesses within the Russian empire, more and more analysts are noticing signs of tension in regions such as the Caucasus, Siberia or the Far East – areas that joined the federation under military or political pressure.
For Iermak, these signs are just the beginning: “Any empire born of violence crumbles when fear disappears. And fear, in Russia, is already beginning to melt away.”
