What does the situation really look like on the Ukrainian front? “One to two months”
There were reports in the media that the Russian command had introduced large reserves into the fight near Pokrovsk. The offensive was resumed west and east of the city, as well as in its residential areas. Russian attack planes are approaching the last two roads into the city. Serivs Meduza writes that several Kremlin marine brigades that previously operated in the Kursk and Sumy regions began offensive.
According to Medusa's data, the Russians continue to use it for attacks near Pokrovsk small assault groups. Stormtroopers entered the southern part of the town of Rodynsk, through which Russian forces have been unsuccessfully trying to break through to the northern exit from Pokrovsk since August, which would mean circumnavigating the city. In Pokrovsk itself, stormtroopers were spotted at the western exit on the route to the Dnieper. West of the city, assault groups reached a fortified base of Ukrainian forces in a mine that covers the western approaches to the city.
The DeepState project map shows that Russian forces have advanced towards Pokrovsk and surrounded the city in a half-ring.
— Street fighting is ongoing in Pokrovsk, Sergey L., an officer of the Ukrainian forces fighting in the Donetsk region, tells Novaya Gazeta. “Control of logistics in the city is difficult. There is chaos in the suburbs. The defense of the western part is weakening. The opponent's pressure is too much. The Russians do not take losses into account. They are pressing from the north through Rodynska and from the south, breaking through the Ukrainian defense. Infiltration into Pokrovsk also takes place all the time. These are not even classic saboteurs and scouts, but ordinary infantry. They are constantly eliminated. The Army of the Russian Federation is transferring reserves. With their help, they initially tried to break the cauldrons near Dobropol, and now they simply moved to attack Myrnohrad.
The situation is getting worse
— The second year of attempts by Russian forces to storm Pokrovsk has passed, Roman Switan, a military expert and reserve colonel of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, explains to Novaya Gazeta. – But for several weeks now The situation is becoming more and more difficult for Ukrainian defenders. The Russians entered the town of Rodynśke and took control of the route to the town of Dobropole. Currently, they are trying to cut off the route to Pavlohrad and are constantly attacking transport using FPV drones. Ukrainian forces hold about 10 km of the throat, preventing the Russian army from closing the pot. The Pokrovsk garrison is supplied, among others, by: through the fields. Autumn is dry and the soil in these places is thick, thanks to which caravans with food, fuel and ammunition reach the city. Supplies of everything necessary were gathered in the positions of the defending troops. However, this territory is constantly under attack by drones and artillery fire from the Russian side. Therefore, maintaining defense in this area is extremely difficult.
According to Roman Switan, Russian sabotage and intelligence groups and infantry quite often get into the urban development of Pokrovsk. Three to five people reach the city's residential areas under the cover of darkness and hide in buildings and basements. Sometimes they manage to gather and gather into small units. Ukrainian forces detect and destroy these formations, but they appear more and more often.
— I can describe the situation of Ukrainian forces near Pokrovsk extremely difficult — Ivan Stupak, a military analyst and former employee of the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU), tells Novaya Gazeta. — The gorge connecting the city with the territory of Ukraine is inexorably shrinking and is currently 10 km long, according to the most optimistic estimates. If this trend continues, the situation will become disastrous. The possibility of surrounding the Pokrovsk garrison is becoming an increasingly real problem. In addition, Ukraine suffers heavy losses when delivering ammunition and products to and from Pokrovsk. I can assume that depending on what forces the Russians engage, the city will be able to sustain itself for one to two months. It is known that the Russian army is strengthening its reserves, taking them from the Sumy and Kherson regions. At the same time, the Russians are clearly preparing a new, deeper and more large-scale breakthrough.
— Currently, the situation in Pokrovsk is becoming more and more dangerous for Ukrainian forces, explains military observer David Sharp. — Maintaining logistics with the besieged garrison causes very serious losses on the Ukrainian side. To deliver the necessary ammunition, provisions and fuel, as well as to transport the wounded to the rear, a very large amount of transport and personnel must be sacrificed. This is a really serious problem. Perhaps the Russian command in this situation is not in a hurry to accelerate the assault on the city, but is focused on the planned destruction of its defenders and those dealing with supplies. This contradicts Ukraine's concept of effective defense, according to which the attacking side loses significantly more resources than the defending side. This may lead to the occupation of the entire Pokrovsk-Myrnohrad agglomeration. To avoid this, Ukraine must urgently find serious reserves. However, according to my estimates, there will soon come a stage where Ukrainian forces will have to leave these cities.
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A big gray area
David Sharp notes that there were quite few instances of large-scale encirclements and closed pots around cities in the war. The Russian army is unable to quickly conduct an offensive using the large forces necessary to perform a sudden maneuver. As a rule, the offensive is carried out by small groups, which are not enough to carry out large-scale breakthroughs, and the Ukrainians have time to leave the dangerous area.
— Pokrovsk has been in a state of semi-encirclement for a long time, and For several months, the forces of the Russian Federation have been trying to surround it: cut the routes to the cities of Dobropole and Pavlohrad, explains an analyst from the independent investigative organization Conflict Intelligence Team (CIT) to Novaya Gazeta, asking to remain anonymous. — The situation in the city is close to catastrophic, single Russian attack planes are recorded in many districts, entering the city from the southern outskirts and heading towards the center. However, for now it is too early to talk about the control of the forces of the Russian Federation over some districts of the city, it is rather a large gray zone. At the same time, attempts to completely cut them off have so far been repelled by Ukrainian forces.
Roman Switan says that while stopping the so-called operational breakthrough in the city of Dobropole, northeast of Myrnohrad, two battalions of Russian soldiers were surrounded. Okay. 1 thousand people are currently supplied using drones. Ukrainian forces, suffering minor losses, do not allow the enemy to break through and expand the borders of the area occupied by Russians.
– The Russians are trying strengthen the gorge northeast of Myrnohrad – Roman Switan continues. — They are bringing new forces into the fight and trying to expand the occupied territories. However, Ukrainian troops also strengthened the reserves and organized an effective defense, not allowing the Russian army to break through to their surrounded comrades and unlock the parts trapped in the cauldron.
The main threat to Ukrainian forces at the moment, according to Roman Switan, is a large-scale Russian military operation. It threatens to completely surround Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad. The Russian army is already carrying out preparatory activities and is transferring a second wave of additional reserves, including motorized riflemen, marines and airborne forces.
It is the paratroopers who are currently occupying territories and towns in the gray zone, attacking them and conducting marches. They then maintain the occupied bridgehead until other troops develop flanks.
Military operations on the front in Ukraine, September 16, 2025.Dmytro Smolenko / AFP
Key cities for Russians
Every day there are reports near Pokrovsk 30-50 attacks. However, at the moment, Russian commanders are afraid of too high losses and expect cloudy weather to arrive. Heavy cloud cover, fog and precipitation will make the work of drone operators as difficult as possible, and the Russians will be able to actively use large groups of infantry and technology in assaults without being afraid of FPV drones. Therefore you can say that the large-scale offensive of the fall-summer 2025 campaign is just beginning.
— The Russians also storm another city in the Donetsk Oblast: Konstantynówka – adds Roman Switan. — The same tactics are used in this direction as in Pokrovsk. Small groups of Russian soldiers are breaking into residential areas. In fact, they go to certain death under Ukrainian FPV drones. Those who cannot be reached by unmanned aerial vehicles are destroyed by soldiers of the Ukrainian forces. At the same time, the situation of Konstantynówka is much easier than that of Pokrovskaya. The Russians have only approached the city from the south-east, and supplies are much more effective.
According to a CIT analyst, towards Konstantynówka, Moscow's forces were stationed in a summer resort in the southeast for several weeks. However, there are reports that the Russians have been pushed out over the past few days. The situation here still requires clarification. Russian troops are approaching the outskirts of the city, but for now they are not visible within its administrative borders.
According to Stupak, there is a very high risk of Russian drone attacks in Konstantynówka. Unmanned aerial vehicles fly over the entire city, conduct reconnaissance and chase Ukrainian soldiers. Russian sabotage groups also often enter the city.
Military operations on the front in Ukraine, September 2, 2025.Diego Herrera Carcedo / AFP
New combat area
Bloody clashes also continue in Kharkov region. Roman Switan describes the situation in Kupiansk as difficult. The fighting takes place practically in the city center. Moreover, it is not sabotage groups that take part in them, but line units. The Russians entered there from the north. The city of Volchansk has also been divided for the second year.
— In Kupiansk, the Russians reached the city center, says Stupak. — There are intense hostilities going on there. It is not known whether the Russian army will be able to maintain its positions in the city, but it is clear that the situation there is extremely difficult.
Switan talks about the emergence of a new combat area that is dangerous for Ukrainian forces. On the border Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporozhye oblasts The Russians began active attacks towards the village of Pokrovsk, hoping to reach the Donetsk-Zaporozhye route and cut it off. At the same time, the Russian army redeployed fresh reserves, trying to outflank and surround Hulaypole. For now, Kiev's forces are building defense in this section using long-range means: FPV drones, aviation and artillery.
— In my opinion, it is in the direction of the village of Pokrovské that the situation is currently the most dangerous for the Ukrainian side, Switan sums up. — At this point, the Russians, having strategic initiative, can try to go on the offensive, enter the operational space and develop success.
According to Stupak's information, the Russian army is actively advancing towards Pokrovsky in the Dnipropetrovsk region. The break in this section is already at least 12 km and tends to increase. It is possible that the Russians will move west towards Zaporozhye or turn sharply north and try to attack from there.
– Apparently we are talking about the town of Pokrovsk, located in the Dnipropetrovsk region – explains the CIT analyst. — For now, there is no direct threat to this town, although Russian forces are attacking bridges there to hamper the logistics of Ukrainian forces. However, the situation is really difficult. In this direction, the pace of the Russian attack is one of the highest on the entire front. There is a noticeable lack of staff in Ukrainian branches. At least one mechanized brigade has been moved there, but so far it has failed to significantly slow down the advance of Russian troops. It is important to monitor whether Russian forces manage to cross the river. If the surgery is successful, it will be at risk a serious defense crisis of Ukraine's forces.
The second issue, according to the CIT analyst, is the Pokrowśke-Hulajpołe road. Cutting it off will also significantly complicate the situation for Ukrainian forces. However, if the Ukrainian side manages to stop the Russians' progress and does not allow them to cross water obstacles, this section of the front may stabilize.
