The Kremlin is preparing the Russians for a single end to the war. What does this say about Putin's intentions
Red Square in Moscow. Photo: Dmitry Yagodkin / Zuma Press / Profimedia
The Kremlin is preparing the Russian people for a complete victory in Ukraine, whatever the price, a domestic effort that is at odds with Putin's stated willingness to make territorial concessions, the US think tank the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) says in its latest assessment of the conflict.
Moscow has repeated throughout the war that Russia's demands remain unchanged and has communicated to the Russian people that Russia will achieve all of these goals in Ukraine, either militarily or diplomatically.
Moscow has not prepared its citizens to accept any compromise
The Kremlin has not prepared Russian society to accept anything less than these claims, ISW points out.
Russian Security Council Secretary Sergei Shoigu, who served as defense minister for much of the war, said in an interview with the Kremlin's TASS news agency on Monday, October 20, that occupied Ukrainian areas should not be considered Russia's “new regions” but Russia's “old regions” that were “historically” Russian.
TASS presented Shoigu's claim as referring to the Donbass and “Novorusia” — a made-up amorphous region in southern and eastern Ukraine that the Kremlin claimed belonged to Russia.
The Kremlin conditioned the Russians to expect the illegal annexation of parts of Ukraine to be permanent and told them that Russia could not make any territorial concessions to Ukraine, the think tank noted.
Anger in Russia at the idea of territorial concessions
Western media widely reported around the August 2025 summit in Alaska that Putin had offered territorial concessions in exchange for Ukraine's handing over the unoccupied part of the Donetsk region, angering Russian officials and ultranationalist voices in the media space.
Russian officials and pro-Kremlin voices downplayed or dismissed the prospect of territorial concessions following Western reports that Putin recently made a similar offer of territorial concessions to Trump.
Putin's refusal to prepare the Russian people, including the important ultra-nationalist part, to make concessions in the war in Ukraine is another indicator that he does not intend to deviate from his long-held claims in future peace negotiations, according to ISW.
Communication line: Ukraine is the obstacle to peace, not Russia
Kremlin officials are trying to portray Ukraine as an obstacle to peace to hide how Putin himself has stood in the way, insisting that Ukraine cede even more territory than is currently occupied by Russian forces.
On Sunday, Kirill Dmitriev, the director general of the Russian Direct Investment Fund and a key Kremlin negotiator, argued that Ukraine and Europe are undermining the peace process in which the United States has been involved.
But Zelenskiy has agreed to each of Trump's proposed immediate ceasefires along the current front in recent months, while Putin has rejected them all.
The Kremlin has promoted a false narrative that Russia will inevitably conquer the territories it claims and that Ukraine is therefore responsible for prolonging the war because it refuses to pre-emptively surrender.
In reality, however, Russian forces have made minor territorial advances with very high casualties, as Putin has repeatedly rejected US and Ukrainian ceasefire proposals and remains determined to fight for more than the territory currently controlled by Russia.
Russia, not Ukraine, has repeatedly demonstrated that its refusal to compromise or engage in good faith negotiations is the reason for the lack of peace, the Institute for the Study of War also said.
