POLITICO, October 20, 2025 – After three years of thinking, pleading and concessions, the EU has decided enough is enough. On Monday, the organization's 27 member states adopted a new law that will permanently stop Russian gas supplies to Hungary and Slovakia, whether they like it or not, writes Politico.
Since 2022, after Moscow launched the war on Ukraine, the EU has weakened Russia's long-standing influence over the bloc's energy supply, but has failed to eliminate imports of Russian oil, coal and gas.
But, during this period of fierce energy 'divorce', Budapest and Bratislava stubbornly rejected this approach. Both countries have repeatedly argued that they have no real alternative, and their Russia-friendly governments have complained that Moscow's withdrawal would cause prices to explode for consumers.
Most of the experts rejected such claims. And in any case, European capitals are ready to pass them by.
Although Russia repeatedly attacks Ukraine's energy infrastructure, “Hungary and Slovakia have paid Russia billions of euros,” as Lithuanian Energy Minister Žygimantas Vaičiūnas said. “(The Russians) are using this to fuel their war machine… indeed, such a thing is unacceptable.”
“Now is the time to demonstrate our… political will at the EU level,” he told Politico.
Without any exceptionyou
After Vladimir Putin first ordered his troops to attack Kiev, Brussels imposed an embargo on oil, fuel and coal supplies to the EU bloc, the bloc imposed a cap of $47.60/barrel on Moscow's general oil supplies, below the market rate, and this reduced the Kremlin's market rate to the EU 45% to 13%.
But Hungary and Slovakia kept stepping in and blocked the sanctions, getting some waivers that allowed them to keep importing Russian gas through the Drujba pipeline on Ukrainian soil, thus blocking efforts to affect Moscow's nuclear and fuel sectors.
Basically, both countries are increasing their fossil fuel payments to Moscow, according to Isaac Levi, head of Russia at the Helsinki-based Center for Energy and Pollution Research. He says that so far this year, Budapest and Bratislava have paid Russia €5.58 billion for fossil fuel imports (coal or natural gas), already exceeding last year's figure of €5.56 billion.
Realizing that its efforts had failed, in June the European Commission decided to change its tactics. The EU executive presented a draft that would impose a ban on Russian gas starting next year for short-term contracts and ending in 2027 for long-term contracts.
Unlike sanctions, which require unanimity from all EU member states, the proposal – billed as a trade measure – only needs a qualified majority to pass, removing Hungary and Slovakia's veto over the bill.
On Monday, EU energy ministers initialed the law, letting it be known that they are ready to pass the two countries when it comes to final negotiations in the European Parliament.
“We will reach an agreement despite their opposition,” said a senior EU diplomat who, like other characters in this material, wished to remain anonymous in order to freely comment on some discussions that took place behind closed doors. “It is not an easy problem, but I think we will succeed.”
Before the vote, both countries pulled out all the stops in their desire to reach an agreement
Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico has threatened to block the 19th sanctions package against Russia unless concessions are made on the gas ban, known as REPowerEU.
But EU countries are holding firm. “It always happens, they find some way out”, says Vaičiūnas, “but now we really have to take a tough stance on REPower”.
At the same time, both countries continued to argue that the law threatens their energy security, will raise prices for consumers and hurt their heavy industry.
Hungarian energy company MVM currently has a long-term contract with Russia's Gazprom until 2036, as well as some shorter-term agreements. Slovak company SPP is tied to an agreement until 2034, monopolized by the Kremlin.
Last week, after MEPs negotiated their position on this whole law, Hungarian Foreign Minister Péter Szijjártó called the text “a direct attack on Hungary's energy security”. “This threatens our economic development and low costs for Hungarian consumers,” he wrote on the X platform. “We will not allow this to happen!”
The Hungarian Foreign Ministry and Slovakia's Economy Ministry did not respond to Politico's request for clarification.
But as far as she's concerned, the industry isn't looking as squeamish. “Probably, this proposal is not exactly a cataclysm,” said a source close to the Hungarian oil and gas sector. “Government and politicians cry 'Wolf!' – let's see if the wolf comes.”
It is true that, in the medium term, prices in the region could increase by “between 5 and 10%”, says Tamás Pletser, an oil and gas analyst at Erste Bank. But if the commission works with member countries to lower gas transit fees, that would eliminate “up to 40%” of the increases,” he added.
At the same time, MVM is quietly signing new gas agreements, Pletser added. At the same time, Hungary can find some alternatives through liquefied gas from Western Europe and Greece, he emphasized, as well as from a new extraction project in Romania, starting from mid-2027. “The industry is absolutely ready,” he added.
Incidentally, the EU executive also seems a bit puzzled. “The measures are intended to ensure the security of energy supply at the EU level, while reducing any impact on prices”, as stated by an official from the Commission. Whether or not this will lead to a price hike, EU capitals are ready to pull the trigger. “They are not doing much to diversify or even deliberately waive some sanctions, and they have quite a lot of time,” a second EU diplomat pointed out. “There is no other way than to work them out.” “It wasn't just yesterday that we started discussing the elimination of Russian gases,” said a third EU diplomat. “Russia is not a partner – it is the problem. It is time to stop pretending that it is not.”
Material produced with the support of Rador Radio Romania
