Trump's change of face towards the war in Ukraine must have deeper causes. Only 2-3 weeks ago, Trump was saying that Ukraine could retake all the territories occupied by Russia, that Russia is a “paper tiger”, so that on Friday night, 24 hours after the phone conversation with Putin, he would crush Zelensky in the meeting at the White House. He obsessively repeated Putin's argument that Ukraine must cede all of Donbas to Russia.
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Zelenski, Ukraine, they cannot cede the Donbas region to the Russians, because it is rich in natural resources, it is well defended, proof that the Russians have not managed to conquer it so far, and it would offer the Russians a terrible attack platform on Kiev, Odessa, the Republic of Moldova, Romania.
Trump: Russia “if it wants to destroy you”
For 3 years and 7 months, Putin occupied only 20% of Ukraine, lost about 1 million soldiers, the Russian economy is approaching collapse, because revenues from oil and gas sales, Russia's most important revenues, are decreasing.
Putin requested the telephone conversation with Trump, proof that he is pressed for time. During the last phone call, he asked Trump to convince Zelensky to stop the war and hand over the occupied territories and all of Donetsk to him. And Trump complied. According to the Financial Times, the Trump-Zelensky conversation was a full-blown fight, Trump “sweared all the time”, threw away the Ukrainian maps saying he was tired of seeing them, and that Russia, if it wants, “will destroy you”.
This statement is at least strange, because in 3 and a half years Russia managed to occupy only 20% of the territory of Ukraine, with huge losses in people, economy and military equipment. Did he mean the destruction of Zelensky, or the entire Ukraine? If it was only Zelenskiy, Ukraine will continue the fight for survival with other leaders, as determined to defend their country as Zelenskiy is. Especially after the huge losses in people and infrastructure that Ukraine suffered. So it would not have been a solution to the conflict to “destroy” Zelenski.
If it was about “destroying” Ukraine, Russia still has the necessary resources for this goal only in tactical nuclear weapons, otherwise it has no way to “destroy” Ukraine, with a huge territory and a population of 42 million people. Trump's problem is that he and Putin cannot decide the fate of Ukraine, because there is also Europe in the middle, plus other powerful countries that support the cause of Ukraine: Canada, Japan, South Korea, Australia and others.
How will NATO act?
Did Trump Agree to Russia Using Tactical Nuclear Weapons in Ukraine? It's not clear at this point, but anything is possible. Putin is running out of economic and military resources, and is capable of anything, including the use of tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine.
Ukraine is not a NATO member and article 5 of the NATO treaty cannot be invoked.
Surely Trump will oppose NATO responding militarily, even if Russia uses tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine. But there is a possibility that the NATO countries in Europe will constitute a grouping that would act without the American decision, although it would be very difficult in the NATO decision process. Did Putin agree with Trump on this topic? Nothing is known for now. It is clear that Russia no longer has the resources to “destroy” Ukraine, other than with tactical nuclear weapons, and hence the discussion.
Europe and other countries have invested enormously in the military, financial and social support of Ukraine, only to now give up all this support. More importantly, once Ukraine is “destroyed”, Putin will occupy the Republic of Moldova, the Baltic States and threaten Europe with war, primarily Poland and Romania. Then all of Europe will be at the mercy of Putin's weapons, primarily nuclear weapons.
This danger is very clear to the European leaders, who invest huge sums in the rearmament of Europe, in order to face the Russian danger, primarily consisting of nuclear weapons.
This danger is exacerbated by the reaction of Trump, who takes the side of the Russians in the conflict with Ukraine.
What made Trump turn 180 degrees?
It is the main question, with several answers.
1. Trump wants to be the master of the world, and Russia's support does not leave him alone with China, which is not willing to make geostrategic bargains under the table, as Russia is willing.
2. Trump sees the world as a huge business, the only field in which he is good. Samsar of lands and buildings, that's what he knows how to do. With such a conception, the immense natural reserves of Russia, from which Putin promised to let him eat his fill, represent an impossible temptation for Trump to stop.
3. Trump increases his and his family's wealth with “black” resources, for example with a commission from Qatar for the plane “gifted” to Qatari bosses. It is possible that Putin has promised him colossal sums of money, if he succeeds in persuading Ukraine to cede the entire Donetsk region to him.
4. It is also possible that Putin used the most powerful attack weapon against Trump, blackmail. No one knows what compromising documents from Trump's past are in the Russian security archives.
One or more of these reasons produced Trump's shift toward the war in Ukraine.
Europe's reaction
But Ukraine is not alone. European states and other important and powerful states support Ukraine, which was invaded and attacked for no reason by Putin. European leaders were stunned after Zelenski informed them about the last conversation with Trump. But Europe has its own resources, including and especially military, so it does not depend on the American army, which is very strong, it is true. If Trump blackmails Europe, that he will not react even to a Russian nuclear attack in Europe, things will take an extremely serious turn.
Everything follows from the fact that Putin is no longer in his right mind. Apart from imperial dreams of the type of Tsar Peter the Great, he has nothing left in his head, if he managed to bring Russia to the brink of military and economic collapse.
The misfortune of free and democratic countries is that Putin found in Trump an equally mentally unbalanced man, a man who sees the world only as a huge business, good only for America and him personally.
In this context, the meeting in Budapest no longer makes any sense, it will probably not be held again. The two, Trump and Putin, have already agreed how to divide Europe and the world into zones of influence, what each side takes and what the other side gives up
It is not clear what will result from the cooperation of the two, but the danger for the security of the European states, especially for Romania, Poland, the Baltic States, has increased enormously.
We await the reaction of the EC and the heads of Brussels.
