The IMF forecasts that in 2025 Russia's real GDP growth will decline sharply from 4.3%. in 2024, and in 2026 it will increase slightly to 1%.
Russia's economy is experiencing natural slowdown after a period of dynamic growth, which is the result of tightening monetary policy, high interest rates increasing the costs of loans and plans to increase taxes to finance the budget.
The decline in economic growth also affected the overall forecast for emerging economies.
“Economic growth is projected in emerging and developing countries in Europe will drop significantlyfrom 3.5 percent in 2024 to 1.8 percent in 2025 and will then increase slightly to 2.2%. in 2026,” says the World Economic Outlook. “This is mainly due to the sharp decline in projected economic growth in Russia.”
The reduction in the forecast reflects the concentration of Russia's fiscal spending in the last quarter of 2024. They resulted in GDP growth last year from 4.1 percent. up to 4.3 percent
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The Russian bubble is bursting
According to the World Economic Outlook report, between March and August 2025, global oil prices decreased by 5.4 percentas weak demand and rising supply from OPEC+ and non-OPEC+ countries pushed prices down, reducing Russia's oil revenues.
Non-OPEC+ supply is expected to increase by 1.4 million barrels per day in 2025, while OPEC+ production increased by 2.5 million barrels per day ahead of schedule. Falling prices and higher production continue to have an impact pressure on Russia's fiscal revenues and economic growth. Global oil demand is forecast to increase by 0.7 million barrels per day next year, which may partially offset these losses.
Despite the slowdown in economic growth, the Russian agricultural sector has benefited good harvest in 2025, which resulted in a decline in grain prices by 11.1%.
“Grain prices fell 11.1% on good harvest forecasts in major producing countries such as the United States, Russia, Brazil and Argentina,” says the IMF World Economic Outlook report.
Everyday life in Moscow (illustrative photo)Olesya Kurpyayeva / AFP
Changes in the face of crisis
Russia depletes resourcesthat have ensured its economic growth over the past two years after the full-scale invasion of Ukraine began, said the governor of Russia's central bank, Elvira Nabiullina, during the International Economic Forum in St. Petersburg on June 19.
In 2022, when full-scale war began, Russia's economy shrank by 1.4%. Then it happened economic recoverywhich exceeded the average of the G7 countries, achieving an increase of 4.1%. in 2023 and 4.3 percent in 2024
This year, the Ministry of Economy forecasts that economic growth will slow significantly to just 1.0 percent, although Russian President Vladimir Putin described this as “deliberate”.
Russia's heavy industry is cutting jobs and shortening weekly working hours as the country's economy weakens in the fourth year of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine. From railways and car factories to cement, coal, diamonds and metals, major employers are cutting labor costs to cope with weaker demand at home and shrinking export markets abroad.
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