The elections for the Capital City Hall. The risk of repeating the scenario after Băsescu's departure in 2004. “There is a lack of collective dynamics”

If each mayor had completed a full mandate, Bucharest would now have its 9th mayor elected by direct vote. In reality, Capital has already reached the 12th. The situation this year is reminiscent of the one in 2004, when Traian Băsescu left for Cotroceni, and the partial elections for the City Hall were held with a very low turnout. This time, the fate of the ballot will be influenced by several factors, after an exhausting electoral cycle, with all types of elections compressed into two years.

PHOTO Inquam / George Călin

After a year with 4 rounds of elections and one more with presidential elections, the turnout will especially depend on the mobilization capacity of the parties and the candidates with whom they will enter the race, experts explain.

“Everything depends on the candidates, first of all, on the names of the candidates and secondly on how the election campaign will look. The more intense, the more intense the campaign will be, the more the turnout will increase. In addition, the names of the candidates, those who will enter the race, how many candidates there will be, are very important, because all these things make that race more interesting for the electorate and whether they get involved or not.” says sociologist Ionaș Vladimir for “Adevărul”.

As a rule, the people of Bucharest go to the polls to elect the mayor, but generally to vote against another candidate. The elections of April 2005 brought an extremely low attendance score due to several elements met at that time, the sociologist explains: “The passion was very high when Traian Băsescu was elected. Later, people got involved with the same passion in the presidential elections, which brought the former president Traian Băsescu to Cotroceni, and after him, the names of the other candidates were not as loud. It is normal to see such a regression in terms of attendance when candidates appear in the race who do not enjoy the sympathy of the people at the same level as the one who previously held the position of mayor. Plus there's this kickback that it's not a full mandate. As long as the City Council is already decided, the majorities in the City Council are already decided, those running for mayor cannot promise or convince people that they can solve X, Y and Z, as long as the majority looks a certain way.”

“A kind of second-order election”

Political scientist George Jiglău explains for “Adevărul” that the elections bring a lower dynamic and will also depend on the situation in the coalition, what the government will do until then, the electorate being able to vote to revolt, if the elections come after the adoption of a new package of measures.

“We are used to the fact that, in general, in some normal local elections, on time, the voter turnout is generally quite high. On the other hand, there is this general dynamic. Of course, there were overlaps last year with other types of elections, and those also of second order at the time. But, in general, this is the dynamic, the whole country votes. When there are elections that are partial in some locality, even in Bucharest, we are talking about a kind of elections second order. So that part of collective dynamics, which makes them good premises, is missing.

Now, the attendance is influenced by several things, not only by the specifics of the elections, it depends on who the candidates will be, it depends on whether it is based on the idea that there are elections with the winner already known in advance, depending on how it is announced, the candidates are placed, especially among the coalition. How high the stakes are perceived to be in these elections. If the stakes are perceived to be low, like we already know who's winning and let's get over it quickly, then attendance will surely be low. If there is some competition there, especially between the bigger parties, and with ambitions, then it will depend on their ability to mobilize”explains political scientist George Jiglău.

12 mayors in 33 years

The capital has lost its mayors several times. It happened in the case of Sorin Oprescu, suspended, but also in the case of Victor Ciorbea's appointment as prime minister. Similar to the current situation is the episode in which the former president Traian Băsescu won his second term, only to arrive shortly after in Cotroceni.

The first local elections for the appointment of the mayor of Bucharest took place in 1992. Until that time, the mayor of the capital was appointed by the government. Since then, in 33 years, the Capital has changed a total of 12 mayors, and this in the conditions where a former mayor won 2 mandates, one 3 mandates, and an interim was later installed in office with full powers.

The second elected mayor of Bucharest, Victor Ciorbea, won the elections in 1996. However, he gave up his mandate, being appointed prime minister, only a few months later, the mandate being taken over by Viorel Lis on an interim basis until 1998, when he was elected.

Eight years later, the people of Bucharest lost their mayor again. This time it is about the former head of state Traian Băsescu, who won the second mandate at Bucharest City Hall in June 2004, from the first round. A few months later, he obtained his first mandate in Cotroceni, leaving the mayor's seat vacant. So the mandate was taken over by a new interim, Răzvan Gheorghe Murgeanu, until April 2005, when Adriean Videanu won the partial elections also in the first round. However, only 24.83% of the citizens of Bucharest with the right to vote went to the polls that year.

Another eight years later, in the local elections of 2012, this time Sorin Oprescu won his third term as general mayor of Bucharest, with 54.79% of the total votes cast, the turnout being 41.76%, much higher. However, in September 2015, a year before the elections, he was suspended from office. His mandate was taken over by two interims, Ștefănel Dan Marin and Ioan Răzvan Sava, until the 2016 elections.

Now, similar to the situation in 2004, the mandate of the current president of Romania, Nicușor Dan, is taken over by Stelian Bujduveanu, who becomes the 5th interim mayor of the Capital.