publication
2025-10-16 14:05
Core inflation in September 2025 remained at the August level. Although it is the lowest since the beginning of 2020, the NBP target has been exceeded for almost 6 years. Even the broad price growth rate managed to meet the central bank's expectations during this time.
According to data published by the National Bank of Poland on October 16 inflation on a year-to-year basis in September 2025 it was as follows:
- after excluding food and energy prices it was 3.2%. compared to 3.2 percent recorded in August. Economists expected it to remain at the previous month's level.
- after excluding administered prices (subject to state control) it was 2.5%. compared to 2.5 percent a month earlier,
- after excluding the most volatile prices, it was 3.7 percent. compared to 3.8 percent a month earlier;
- the so-called 15 percent trimmed mean, which eliminates the impact of 15 percent. basket of prices with the lowest and highest dynamics, amounted to 2.9 percent. compared to 3.0 percent a month earlier.
Core inflation is the lowest in nearly 6 years
Core CPI inflation therefore remained at its lowest level since January 2020. Moreover, September was the sixth month in a row in which core CPI inflation was within the band of permissible deviations (i.e. +/- 1 percentage point) from the 2.5% target of the National Bank of Poland. The NBP has been outside the very purpose for almost exactly 6 years. The last time core inflation was within target was in October 2019. This is much longer than CPI inflation, which was on target in May last year.
Currently, the broad-based consumer inflation index (CPI) measured year-on-year in September was 2.9%. However, the inflation report published by the Central Statistical Office shows that on an annual basis, the prices of food and non-alcoholic beverages continued to increase rapidly, which were on average 4.2 percent. more expensive than a year ago and, above all, services, with an increase of 5.8%. rdr.
Inflation resistant to shocks
Core inflation measures are used to assess the medium- and long-term trend in the increase in the general price level. It is usually assumed that core inflation is the part of inflation that is related to inflation expectations and demand pressure and which is not directly dependent on supply shocks.eliminating the prices of food, non-alcoholic beverages and energy, which are particularly sensitive to internal and external shocks, it was written in the methodology of NBP core inflation measures.
According to the central bank, according to its own calculations based on Central Statistical Office data, food and non-alcoholic beverages as a group of goods weighed 25.9% in the CPI in 2025. (27.6% in 2024). However, energy prices accounted for 16.6%. consumer inflation index weights (17.9% in 2024). In 2025, the total share of food and energy prices is 42.4%. CPI basket.
Michal Kubicki
