According to an IBRiS poll for Onet, if the parliamentary elections were held next Sunday, the turnout could be 55.7%. When asked about their participation in the vote, 40.5 percent respondents answered “definitely yes”, and 15.2 percent “probably yes”.
15.8 percent respondents chose the “rather not” option, and 25.5 percent “definitely not.” Undecided people constituted 3%. respondents.
KO is in the lead, PiS is losing support
The Civic Coalition obtained 30.5 percent in the survey. votes, which means an increase of 2 percentage points. compared to the results from the end of August. This is a return to the level of support the party had before the second round of the presidential elections, after which it dropped sharply.
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Law and Justice, which has so far held the advantage or tied with KO, is currently in second place with a score of 27.3 percent, which means a drop of 1 percentage point. Thus, Jarosław Kaczyński's party loses more than 3 percentage points to the leader.
Confederation and the Crown of Polish politics
Confederation came in third with 14.1 percent.which means a slight decrease of 0.3 percentage points.
The Left would also be in the Sejm with 7.1 percent. support (-1 percentage point).
The list ends with the Confederation of the Polish Crownwhich recorded an increase by 2.7 percentage points, reaching 6.1 percent.
Below the electoral threshold were the Polish People's Party (4.6 percent, an increase of 0.5 percentage points), the Razem Party (2.9 percent, a decrease of 1.3 percentage points) and Poland 2050 (1.6 percent, a decrease of 0.7 percentage points).
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Undecided people constituted 5.9 percent. respondents.
Seat division simulation: Key confederation
Based on the survey results, the Onet Data team simulated the division of seats in the 460-seat Sejm. According to the analysis, the Civic Coalition could count on 176 seats, PiS on 170, Konfederacja on 78, Left on 23, and Konfederacja Korona Polskiej on 13.
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This balance of power means that none of the main parties could govern alone. Both KO and PiS would have to look for a coalition partner, and Confederation could play a key role in the talks. Without it, achieving a majority in the Sejm would be impossible.
The Civic Coalition and the Left, even if they joined forces, would not obtain a majority, because PSL and Polska 2050 do not exceed the electoral threshold. They would be 32 seats short.
