The war weakens Russia's control over the former USSR countries

In Central Asia and the Caucasus, countries such as Kazakhstan, Armenia and Azerbaijan are building deeper ties with Russia's rivals such as China, the European Union, Türkiye and the Persian Gulf states. The turn away from Moscow is driven by fear, writes Bloomberg on Thursday.

The Central Asian countries “are trying to hedge against risks and look for ways to distance themselves from Russia as much as possible,” said Aleksandr Gabuyev, director of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center think tank, in an interview with the agency.

According to Bloomberg, the Russian invasion of Ukraine has forced the former Soviet republics to analyze potential threats to their own security

While part of the Kremlin is worried about Moscow's weakening position, other powers are getting in on the action, the agency said. China's trade with five Central Asian republics has increased by a third in the past two years, with President Xi Jinping visiting Kazakhstan. In August, Donald Trump invited the leaders of Armenia and Azerbaijan to the White House. Previously, he obtained exclusive rights for the United States to develop the so-called The Trump Trail for International Peace and Prosperity, which will run through Armenia, connecting Azerbaijan with the Nanakhichevan enclave bordering Turkey.

Türkiye also sees an opportunity in opening borders and transport connections. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan on Tuesday attended the summit of Turkish-speaking countries hosted by Azerbaijan.

– Russia is not always able to use its strength abroad when resources are used in Ukraine – noted Emily Ferris from the Royal United Services Institute in London.

However, the opportunity to build new networks of contacts with other powers may disappear as soon as the war with Ukraine ends. – Putin's influence has weakened, but not for long – said Vladislav Inoziemtsev, co-founder of the Center for Analysis and Strategy in Europe. – The West rarely takes advantage of such moments – he added.

For now, however, Moscow has competition, Bloomberg emphasized. China is expanding cooperation under Xi Jinping's landmark Belt and Road investment program and has overtaken Russia as the largest trading partner in both Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, the region's two largest economies. They plan to build a third railway line with Kazakhstan.

– Russia now has a much weaker presence in Uzbekistan, said Giovanni Salvetti of the investment bank Rothschild & Co. – The Chinese do not hesitate to fill this vacuum.

The EU has signed a Strategic Partnership Agreement with Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan, which includes an investment program of up to EUR 12 billion for transport links, key minerals and energy. Central Asian countries have agreed to intensify efforts to prevent companies from circumventing sanctions imposed on the Russian war machine, and the EU supports the development of trade routes in the region that bypass Russia and lead from China through Turkey to Europe.

Arab states have also increased their involvement in the region since Saudi Arabia hosted the 2023 Gulf Cooperation Council-Central Asia summit.

Armenia froze its involvement in a defense alliance with Russia last year after Moscow failed to provide it with assistance in clashes with Azerbaijan in 2022. Yerevan is seeking EU membership.

Kazakh President Kassym-Zhomart Tokayev refused to support Russia's war against Ukraine despite pressure from the Kremlin and met with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky at the UN General Assembly in New York last month.

Kate Mallinson from the analytical company PRISM Strategic Intelligence Ltd. in London estimated that since the beginning of the war, countries neighboring Russia have been trying to protect themselves against Moscow's influence. – After the invasion of Ukraine, the Central Asian countries understood that Russia, despite the costs, does not give up its strategic goals, she said. (PAP)

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