publication
2025-10-06 22:07
Two investment fever takes place in the financial markets. One concerns the “barbaric relic” and the other a modern mania on AI. In both cases, new records of all time are symptoms.
In fact, it was a day like every day. Dollar gold quotations increased by nearly 2% and found hair from USD 4,000/OZ. At the same time, the new record of all time set “digital gold” – Bitcoin. And the Tokyo stock exchange went up by nearly 5%. All this in the aftermath of political changes in Japan, which arose to power, a supporter of even faster “money printing”.
The second fever remembered about itself in the afternoon. AMD processor manufacturer has announced a multi -billion contract with OpenAI – a company standing behind the ChatgPT model. The agreement assumes that AMD will provide OPENAI advanced graphic processors, and in exchange Opeli will be able to buy up to 10% of shares in AMD. AMD shares went down on Monday by nearly 24%.
This is another deal of this type in the AI industry recently announced. Less than a month ago, Nvidia announced investing up to $ 100 billion at Openai, and the latter will buy huge amounts of chips from … Nvidia. All this is more and more like transferring money from your pocket in your pocket, which pumps the valuations in the AI sector. Michał Kubicki described the whole network in an article entitled “AI cobweb: AMD and OpenAI have a thread of agreement”.
As a result of the increases in the semiconductor producers sector, new records of all time performed by Nasdaq (+0.7%) and S&P (+0.4%) were new records of all time. The first one from the April hole gained over 55%and the second nearly 40%. Without even a trace of correction or hesitation on the way. And with valuations slowly approaching the time of the internet bubble from the end of the 20th century.
It should also be noted from the chronic duty that the sixth day of closing the federal government is in the United States. This is the first “Shutdown” since 2018. Then – also under the rule of Donald Trump – the budget clinch lasted for 35 days. The previous, much shorter “shutdowny” took place at the beginning of 2018 and in 2013.
In connection with the closing of the government, official statistical data, including Friday “Payrolls”, is not published. If this situation persists, both investors and decision -makers from the Federal Reserve will have to assess the state of economic situation based on reports of private companies (e.g. ISM, PMI, Conference Board) and on their own sense. However, this is not much significant for now, because the timely market at nearly 95% values the chances that at the end of October Fed is the docor of the second 25-point reduction in interest rates this year-according to the Fedwatch Tool calculations.
The implementation of such a scenario will mean that the US central bank is loosening monetary policy with permanently increased consumer inflation and with a still low unemployment rate and almost record high valuations of action. According to estimates of the Fed's prognostic model with Cleveland in September, CPI inflation in the United States was 0.38% MDM and 2.99% yard. The inflationary goal of the Federal Reserve is 2% in the “average date” and was last implemented in the spring of 2021.
