Shutdown in the USA, Payrolls will not be. It promises to be less variability on currency markets

It will be a strange first Friday of the month on the financial markets, because due to the closing of the government there will be no monthly report from the American labor market. This will probably mean less variability on currency markets.

Due to the suspension of the US Federal Government, the Labor Statistics Office informs that its website will not be updated until the end of “Shutdowna”. Maintaining this state of affairs will mean a lack of publication of data from the labor market as a customary primary date. Anyway, on Thursday BLS did not publish a weekly report on the number of new unemployed.

After terrible data for August (only 22,000 new jobs), the market consensus for September estimated the increase in employment in non -agricultural sectors at +50,000. full -time jobs at the unemployment rate unchanged at 3.7%. As it really was, we will find out when the Americans “open” their government, which may take a while.

This lack of new pulses from the macro sphere has made us observe the stabilization of the main currency pairs for several days. The EUR/USD exchange rate “got stuck” at USD 1.1,750 after a dynamic correction from the previous week. On the Polish market it translated into a dollar after PLN 3.6253. The USD/PLN exchange rate comes very carefully for landing on the line of PLN 3.60, which sets the next support.

Even less is happening on the euro-gold pair, where we have been observing a narrow side trend for half a year. The euro exchange rate from April ranges in the range of PLN 4.23-4.31, of which most of this time spent PLN 4.23-4.28. On Friday at 10:40 euros was quoted after PLN 4.2558 – slightly lower than the day before.

– The EUR/PLN exchange rate decreased the third session in a row. Although the changes are not significant, yesterday the level of 4.2515 set a 10-day minimum. (…) At the same time, however, the EUR/PLN exchange rate arrived inside the 4,2350–4,2730 range, hence the space to continue strengthening the Polish currency is limited. We focus on a small discount of the zloty today due to the desire to limit the position before the weekend – wrote in the morning note economists ING.

A similar “oyster mushroom” has been binding on the Frank-Gold steam for six months. The CHF/PLN exchange rate moves in the range of PLN 4.50-4.60. On Friday before noon it was PLN 4.4590. However, PLN 4.8793 was paid for the British pound.

KK

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