Pekao: Loan needs in 2026 will be smaller than in the draft budget

The actual loan needs of the Ministry of Finance will turn out to be PLN 50-100 billion next year than in the draft budget for 2026-the economists of Bank Pekao wrote in Thursday's commentary.

Economists Pekao reminded that the draft budget for next year stated that the gross needs of the state budget are to amount to PLN 688 billion next year (this year it is to be PLN 553 billion). In turn, net loan needs – i.e. without taking into account the repayment of the collapse of the debt – are to amount to PLN 423 billion (this year it is to be PLN 300 billion). They added that in the justification the Ministry of Finance indicated that one of the reasons for the increase in loan needs is to be the national reconstruction plan.

“(…) The actual loan needs of the Ministry of Finance will turn out to be PLN 50-100 billion next year than in the budget project (i.e. they will amount to just over PLN 600 billion gross and PLN 400 billion net)-wrote representatives of Pekao.

They added that the planned increase in loan needs in 2026 is to result almost exclusively from items that did not play a significant role in recent years, i.e. the budget of EU funds and loans granted by the State Treasury.

“These needs will probably be much smaller than now declares the Ministry of Finance. For reasons unknown to us, it is used to overstate the expected budget deficit of the EU funds and not to implement it later. The same applies to loans granted from KPO, although they have a much shorter history” – we read in the commentary.

Bank economists added that in the budget for 2025 it was assumed that loans from KPO would amount to PLN 59 billion, and the currently planned execution is PLN 9 billion. In their opinion, it can be assumed that also in 2026 they will also prove much smaller than the assumed PLN 113 billion. They added that their amount “will not also affect the issue of tax bonds, because they will be financed from the funds from the loan from the instrument for reconstruction and increasing EU immunity.”

“On the other hand, the sale of a new debt (…) will follow the budget deficit, which we rate at approx. PLN 290 billion, i.e. an amount similar to this year's and at the same time slightly greater than assumed by the current budget project at 2026 (PLN 271 billion). Why do we set up this project? Because this project assumes, among others, an increase in certain taxes, e.g. excise duty for alcohol and sugar fee, which will not happen due to For the president's veto. (PAP)

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