According to IBRIS, almost half of Poles would not report to the country in the event of war threat. Dr. Weronika Grzebalska from ISP PAN told PAP that this type of pollush should not be treated as an oracle. – Declarations at the time of peace and behavior during the crisis are two different things – she emphasized.
Almost half of the respondents, because 49.1 percent, replied that they would not appear to defend the country, according to the Monday Ibris poll for Radio Zet. 17.9 percent of them chose the answer “definitely not”, and the remaining 31.2 percent. “I don't think so”. The opposite opinion is 44.8 percent. respondents who declared their participation in the defense of the country in the event of a threat situation, of which 20.7 percent. of them answered “definitely yes” and 24.1 percent “Rather yes.”
Dr Weronika Grzebalska, a sociologist from the Institute of Political Studies of the Polish Academy of Sciences, explained in an interview with PAP that polls on readiness to defend the country show very different resultsand depending on a number of methodological factors and no single result should be treated as an oracle.
Looking at many different polls, you can see the trend that if the question is asked broadly, e.g. about the desire to join the defense in accordance with their own abilities, skills and possibilities, many, many more people say so. And if we ask more at an angle of joining armed resistance, then fewer people make such a declaration – described Grzebalska.
As an example of such significant differences, the sociologist gave a recent Globsec study from the beginning of 2025, covering the Visegrad region, according to which 84 percent. Poles are ready to defend the country. In turn, according to Gallup's research from the end of 2023, 45 percent Poles would fight for their country.
– Each survey does its own defense readiness research, based on different sample selection methods, worse, asking questions about a different sound. And recognizing any trends in such a situation is very difficult. That is why such quick surveys on behalf of the media in my opinion often often result in sowing moral panic rather than providing an in -depth analysis. Depending on how the question is asked, and even where this question is placed in the questionnaire, we can get completely different results – she described.
She added that, in turn, CBOS research shows that most Poles declare their readiness to defend a lower level. When asked whether we would be ready without directly exposing our lives to support defense in a civil manner, Over 80 percent Poles respond to the affirmative. However, when asked about joining the army and armed struggle, fewer people make such declarations. Therefore, according to a sociologist, we should ask not only about military resistance, but about a wider defense involvement, because it gives a better discernment of the situation.
Grzebalska also pointed out that people reading polls often forget that these types of results tell us about what people declare at a given moment, not what they will actually do. As an example of a sociologist, she gives Ukraine, in which before 2014 there were very low rates of readiness for defense; However, in the situation of the attack they went up very much. – Declarations at the time of peace and behavior during the crisis are two different things – the expert emphasized.
The sociologist also added that one of the variables strongly affecting defensive attitudes is gender – and this is a constant observation from various surveys. According to the Monday survey, every third Polish woman (33 percent) believes that she would report to the defense of the country, and 55 percent. – not. For men, 54 percent of them are ready to fight for Poland, and 44 percent He announces that he would not be defended.
– In my opinion, these results show us that the situation of women in Polish defense policy is quite ambivalent, unclear. Apart from the exceptions to certain professions, women do not undergo military qualifications when they are 18 years old. The whole message regarding the obligation to defend the country is very masculine-central, the prime minister recently announced training, addressing “healthy men”, and even a recently published security guide speaks to us in a male sort of. On the other hand, we have art. 85 of the Polish Constitution, which says that the basic duty of all citizens is the defense of their homeland – described Grzebalska.
She added, however, that it is obviously not that the percentage of women in the army is not growing, or that women are not subject to the obligation to defend the country – all women who took the oath are in reserve or in any military formation, women with usable professions for the army, such as doctors, translators, psychologists may be subject to him. But, as the sociologist emphasized, for the rest of the cubs, their situation and duties are unclear, because the state does not communicate to women, how specifically they see their role.
– Women don't know what to expect from them. In addition, they are generally interested in military, military and security topics. Less often they subscribe to such channels, listen to podcasts, look for guides, etc. If we want to reach women, then we must direct communication to them. In Nordic countries, more women declare their readiness to defend the country, because there this communication that the country has a doctrine of total defense and everyone is part of it, is well resolved – she explained.
The sociologist also referred to the readiness mentioned in the Monday poll in the country in relation to political views. According to IBRIS, 56 percent would appear in the event of war threat to the defense of Poland. supporters of Law and Justice, at 43 percent opposing answers. At the same time, 49 percent KO supporters announced that he would put up to fight, and 45 percent. – not. 44 percent would report to the defense of the country. confederation supporters, and 56 percent NO. In the case of supporters of the new left, 51 percent of them announces that he would not be defended by the country, and 36 percent. declares his willingness to fight in an emergency.
– Although we have a tendency in Poland for several years that it is rather the right and center -right voters that are more pro -defense, this is a very variable trend. Remember that, for example, before World War I this leftist Polish Socialist Party was more pro -defense and ready to fight than a right -wing endecja, which did not want an armed struggle. Even at the beginning of the SLD political transformation, it was considered a party representing the interests of uniformed services, and in polls the left -wing voters were more pro -defense. So I would not fall into such determinism that only voters of some parties will defend us and others do not. It is too variable and dependent on the context – she explained.
Grzebalska also drew attention to the need for cultural changes. On January 1, 2010, the decision to suspend the consumption in Poland came into force and, as the sociologist emphasized, the new generations grew up in the country where the army must be professional and citizens have no defense obligations, but paying taxes. In the expert's opinion, you must start consistently building a universal defensive culture, i.e. the conviction in society that the defense model is based not only on the army, but also on the civil involvement of the entire state and the whole of society.
– At the moment, many people may think that surveys in polls, asking them about their readiness to defend the country, ask about whether they will report to a military or paramilitary organization tomorrow. In the context of the suspension of consumption and the lack of universal training, it is not surprising that many people do not answer this question in the affirmative – she assessed. – In my opinion, if in communication with citizens we were talking about total defense, universal defense, i.e. not only the army, but also civilians and civil institutions are part of the defense and have their own tasks, people would feel that, for example, going to work in a strategically significant industry, enrolling in training, educating themselves, thinking about the safety of their home, they will also serve defense. And at the moment they do not feel like that and therefore they can answer “no” with questions in various polls.
Grzebalska also pointed out that for this one of our strengths is stable and stable, because the conflict is on different fronts, including information or psychological and chute. This means that in a crisis there is a high probability that citizens will check military messages and base their actions on them.
In the sociologist's opinion, the issue of trust looks a bit worse, including to politicians or the media.
– The state should focus on deepening social resistance, building strong foundations of citizens' trust, the feeling that the state gives us a lot: qualitative education, good health care, that it does not leave us alone – described Grzebalska.
As the expert added, a problem with a sense of disappointment with the state can be seen especially among young people. According to a sociologist from various research, e.g. the Batory Foundation, a picture of a generation emerges, which believes that if he can count on someone, then rather on himself and the immediate family, not the state.
– We immediately jump to the declaration of bloodsing blood for the country, and we should start by understanding how to build social immunity and universal defensive culture. What makes people feel that their state is worth trusting and sacrifices? Do young people think they can rely on the state? What are they missing? Maybe they don't feel that they have any impact on the sphere of defense policy and security? That only they are still poke and wants more and more commitment? She mentioned.
The sociologist emphasized that if we want real research on the basis of which you can observe trends over time, we should earn some “repetitive, state -sealed, methodologically thought -out survey.” – This is how countries such as Finland or Estonia, which have special cells – either a parliamentary team or a department – where research on defense and immunity is done according to the same methodology, on the same questionnaire for years – she described.
She added that a special department could be created in the Polish Ministry of National Defense that would deal with readiness to defend and social immunity. Another alternative may be the Sejm National Security Committee, which could in cooperation with sociologists take care of such research, order them every year and discuss recommendations.
– In such an important issue as defensive attitudes, we must have a permanent, proven, repetitive source of information, which is the responsibility of the state. And not rely on different polls asking about different things and ordered by the media that need clickable headers – emphasized Grzebalska.
Agata Gutowska (PAP)
AGG/ MHR/
