Before the invasion of Ukraine, the Russian army conducted a series of provocations, which, according to the classic technique of military propaganda, were to present Russia as an innocent victim of the “Kiev regime”.
On February 21, 2022, the Russian Ministry of Defense announced that two armored transporters of the Ukrainian army got into the territory of the Rostov region, where they were destroyed. Russia has prepared these provocations in a hurry and they did not impress the world, which is why they are mostly forgotten today. They looked as if their authors were not too interested in creating a convincing version of events.
The proof of this were even BTR-70M armored personnel carriers, which were to show Kiev's aggressive intentions. They were all the Russian structure – the Ukrainian army did not use such at all. So it would seem that it is nothing. But just After such extensive provocations, it became clear that the Kremlin decided to start the invasion.
In recent days, EU and NATO countries have faced completely new provocations from the Russian Federation.
First, 19 gerber scouts appeared in the Polish airspace, which – considering the number – is hard to call by accident. Then Estonia announced that three MiG-31 fighters that Russia uses to conduct attacks on Ukraine for 12 minutes were in its aircraft above the territorial waters of the country. At this time, a combat aircraft covers a distance of over half a thousand kilometers.
The next incident applies to Poland again: two Russian fighters flew at a very low height above the Petrobaltic drilling platform in the Baltic Sea. At the same time, the work of the largest airports in Europe was paralyzed as a result of a software failure that can be associated with cyber attack.
Russian reason to be satisfied
The handbook for dictators who want to justify an aggressive war, has already been written by the events of the 20th century. Two authors in developing plans where Putin is currently modeled, of course Stalin and Hitler.
Poles know perfectly well that the history of World War II began with a provocation in Gliwice, when a group of German Nazis dressed in Polish uniforms, they attacked on the German radio station. This allowed Goebbels's propaganda to announce that the Germans allegedly met with an act of aggression and respond to fire with fire. Stalin justified his own invasion of Poland with the “fall of the Polish state” and the need to protect Ukrainians and Belarusians living in the east of the country. The incident in Mainil, during which the territory of the USSR fired its own village, accusing the Finns of it, became an excuse for Soviet aggression at Finland starting the winter war.
The only difference in the current situation is that provocations are carried out at a new technological level – with the help of drones, hackers or demonstration flights of assault fighters.
After the catastrophic for Russia, when Ukraine asked the Russian army a number of severe defeats, and Putin had to decide on extremely unpopular mobilization, today the Kremlin leader is clearly excited. He thinks he wins the war. The key factor in Putin's optimism are not so much the successes of the Russian army, which failed to break the Ukrainian front during the summer offensive, but the unstable policy of the Trump administration.
A fragile war -fed regime
Numerous statements about the withdrawal of the United States from a security guarantee for European allies within NATO, falling in the middle of the largest conflict since World War II in Europe, literally add wings to Putin. Russian aircraft and drones did not appear massively in the sky of EU countries until the United States was the main factor stopping the escalation of aggression. A new friendship with Trump gave Putin a free hand.
The proposal to suspend weapons, lying on the table in the Kremlin for several months, was actually rejected by him – the Russian authorities cite the mystical “primary causes of the conflict” that should be eliminated. The peak at Alaska and the invitation to the military parade in Beijing showed the Russian president that there is nothing to fear – he has solid Chinese support, and there is no more united West. Under these conditions, Europe becomes an acceptable goal for Putin.
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The social situation in Russia also hinders the end of the war to the Kremlin. “Special wax operation” – as the Kremlin calls it – was conceived as a short and effective military campaign, which duplicates the experience of the successful occupation of Crimea in 2014. However, it went completely differently. The social transformation caused by war was dangerously far away, Both in terms of increase in the pace of spending on armed operations and the expectations of war supporters, who in exchange for readiness to commit war crimes receive money and social status.
The reason for the extension of aggression to third countries may not only be Putin's conviction about victory, but also his fear of returning Russia to peaceful life. Dictators who started the war rarely think that it can destroy their regime. However, to maintain power, they must continue their aggression.
History lesson
Military analysts and political leaders have repeatedly declared that Europe must be ready for a direct armed conflict with Russia in the coming years. According to commonly accepted assessments Currently, Putin does not have sufficient armed forces to attempt to make a land invasion in the European Union. After successful attempts using drones and military aircraft, however, he may embolden the next step.
In the EU there was a discussion about what to do with Russian aircraft that enter the airspace of border countries. Czech President Petr Pavel stated that they should be shot down. Officials in Estonia say, however, that the NATO reaction to the invasion of Russian fighters was adequate – the alliance conducted consultations under Article 4 of its statute.
The sense of provocation in the airspace and cyberspace is, of course, that European countries react to threats, thus giving the aggressor an excuse to open the new front. On the other hand, experiences related to calming dictatorships before World War II remind that readiness to make concessions only fuels the appetites of those who have already failed to war.
In recent months, in anticipation of an imminent suspension of weapons, there has been a lot of talk about security guarantees for Ukraine. Finland's President Alexander Stubb said that they should compare with Europe's readiness to fight Russia in the case of new aggression. Finland drew conclusions from the 20th century. Will the Peace European Union pass the history exam?
I’m Ashley Davis as an editor, I’m committed to upholding the highest standards of integrity and accuracy in every piece we publish. My work is driven by curiosity, a passion for truth, and a belief that journalism plays a crucial role in shaping public discourse. I strive to tell stories that not only inform but also inspire action and conversation.
