The president of the Russian Federation, Vladimir Putin, relies on the increasingly visible cracks in the Western democratic world and does not seem to give up the military aggression too soon. In an interview with the publication Zn.UA, the historian and British analyst Niall Ferguson warns that the political developments in Europe and the United States are currently working in favor of the Kremlin leader.
Vladimir Putin, Russia's president/photo: Profimedia
Ferguson points out that one of Putin's main hopes comes from the electoral changes in three of the most influential European democracies – the United Kingdom, France and Germany. In all three countries, the populist parties gain land, or leading to surveys (in the case of the United Kingdom and France), or reaching the governance formations (as is the case of Germany).
“Political tendencies are promising from Putin's perspective. He observes how Western democracies enter a period of political instability, and this encourages him to continue.”says Ferguson.
“With the election of President Trump, the US was clearly forced to engage on a different course, and we are actually in the phase of this change. Moreover, President Putin observes the electoral changes from the three European states (broadly) – the United Kingdom, France and Germany. What he sees there? Germany.he believes.
“The United States is in a transition phase, in which the political course can change significantly. Trump could reset relations with Russia, which would be great to Putin.”warns the British historian.
“I think the failure of Alaska's discussions has played a role. Therefore, we are witnessing a moment of truth for both Trump and NATO administration.
It has always been clear to me that Putin's ultimate goal is not simply to control Ukraine. Putin's ultimate goal is to abolish NATO. Therefore, now we are witnessing the first calculated movement of undermining the security of a NATO member. If the US and other NATO members do not react, Putin will conclude that NATO is a dying or perhaps dead alliance, ” emphasizes the British anlist.
Given the volatility of the global situation and the role of the US as the main actor, Neil Ferguson has insisted the increasing responsibility of the EU and the availability of the Union to understand and accept this responsibility.
“Europe has huge resources available. If we look at the extent of the Covid-19 assistance programs that the EU has adopted, they far exceed what it has been offered in the form of assistance so far. This is absurd”, Stress Neil Ferguson.
He believes that it is incomprehensible how small the expenses for defense of Europe are compared to those of Russia, considering how big the EU economy is. He notes that recent changes in European politics have not led to a clear positive result. The good news, not least under the pressure of President Trump, is that Europe has committed to significantly increase their defense budget.
“In the case of Germany, this is a very important matter, which requires a constitutional change to increase the defense expenses, as well as for infrastructure. Wonderful, brilliant, long ago! Now.“
How does Ukraine's aerial defense behave during the latest and most prolonged air bombings? It works well, but we can say so. They are still not enough. Does Europe work day and night to produce air defense comparable to the one provided by Ukraine by the US? Not. Are there serious efforts to expand the production of drones as the Russians do? Not.”Said the British historian.
Ferguson said that although Ukraine is already a leader in technological innovation and can produce alone mass drones, he cannot afford to buy everything he needs for defense. For a very simple reason: the huge difference between the resources planned by the European governments and the financing volume that actually translates into equipment that Ukraine can use.
To support this opinion, Ferguson recommends analyzing research and development in the field of US and EU. The first thing that draws your attention is that there is an order of size more research and development in the field of defense in America than in Europe.
“This war will not be won by producing more and more howitzers and related ammunition,” says Neil Ferguson. “This is a war on a new technological border, in which the anti-aircraft defense is essential. Here Europe is not prepared to assume the role played by the United States.”
Europe, too indebted to afford defense
Beyond the political landscape, Ferguson also draws attention to a worrying economic reality. Most European states are trapped in a spiral of public debt, which drastically limits their ability to invest in defense. With the exception of Germany, almost all European economies pay more for the interest rates than for defense – a major strategic vulnerability in the context of a prolonged conflict.
“From Putin's perspective, it is a favorable combination: political instability and economic weakness. And he knows that Ukraine depends on the support of these democracies that, historically speaking, are unpredictable and oscillating.”says Ferguson.
In contrast, Putin benefits from increasingly consolidated support from authoritarian regimes. China, by the voice of Xi Jinping, and North Korea are open allies, and this autocratic block offers Moscow a difficult political and economic support.
“Let's not forget an essential thing: little matters on the support of dictatorships, while Ukraine is dependent on the will of democracies. And this asymmetry becomes dangerous in the longconcludes Niall Ferguson.
“The United States remains the dominant military power in the world, as well as the main economy. Of course, in some respects, the United States demonstrates its power in trade negotiations, as well as those on the defense expenses of its allies. Therefore, there is no doubt that the United States is still the dominant power.
The problem is that it is facing an axis of authoritarian states: China, Russia, Iran, North Korea. It must face these states in at least three war theaters: Eastern Europe, the Middle East and the Far East. This is a challenge even for the United States ”says the British analyst.
