Putin's greatest fear. Everything can fall like a house of cards [OPINIA]
The aging coaches walked over to the shoulder, leading the procession of foreign leaders who came to watch the military parade in Beijing. Suddenly, the microphone captured surprisingly honest words – conversation between Russian President Vladimir Putin and the chairman of the Chinese People's Republic XI Jinping on the methods of prolonging human life.
– Human organs can be transplanted many times. The longer you live, the younger you become [możesz] To achieve immortality – this is what Putin's translator said, as the Reuters agency informed.
For the Russian president The topic of mortality affects the heart of the greatest weakness of the autocratic system that he created. He is afraid that when he is no longer in power, everything can collapse like a house from cards.
Chaos
Within 25 years of the first election for President Putin, he thoroughly rebuilt the Russian political system.
The ruling pro -REMENT party one Russia takes 315 out of 450 places in the state Duma and has the vast majority of regional positions. According to human rights observers, the elections in Russia are neither free nor fair, and the constitutional changes that Putin supervised in 2020 allow him to become president until 2036, when he is 83 years old.
These facts promote many analysts to convince that Putin does not intend to voluntarily leave the office. If the Russian president died or became unable to exercise power, This would initiate a series of political events that he would have no control over.
First, the President's Office would take the Russian Prime Minister. This would make Mikhail Miszustin, a 59-year-old leader of the country, a former tax official at the head of the government from 2020, then, then, according to the constitution, the Federation Council should announce elections in 14 days to select a new president.
Vladimir Putin with Mikhail Miszustin in the great Kremlin Palace, May 29, 2024.Contributor / Contributor / Getty Images
The further trial would become unclear. According to many analysts, Putin did not choose the successor.
“If Vladimir Putin dies suddenly or after a week or two weeks of sick leave, there will be a huge pressure to avoid a period of unrest,” says Julian Waller, professor at George Washington University and Russian researcher at Think Tank Cna. – [Rosjanie] They do not want to return the 1990s. They do not want the Russian civil war – he adds.
In such a situation, many applicants applying for the highest position could occur. Experts say that the appointment of Miszustin as president would not guarantee his election for this office. The election process could serve the legitimacy of the selected successor. However, there is a fundamental paradox in the composition of Putin's immediate surroundings – Many of his potential successors are also elderly.
No successor
Among the potential successors of Putin, the analysts once pointed to the Minister of Defense Andrei Biełousow, former head of the Security Council Nikolai Patruszew and Merra of Moscow Sergei Sobianin. The youngest of them is 66 years old.
“The baton had to be handed over some time ago,” says Waller. – This has not been done, and now, in the last few years, or rather since the war, There is a kind of rush to refresh the composition of the Russian elite – he adds.
He claims that Putin's successor may come not from his immediate surroundings, from a younger group of officials appointed to his positions during the war in Ukraine. People such as 53-year-old Aleksiej Diumin, former security guard Putin, and currently the secretary of the State Council or 47-year-old Deputy Prime Minister for Agriculture and son of the former Secretary of the Security Council Dmitry Patruszew would probably maintain the system created by Putin, not having this burden in the form of age.
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In the future, Russian officials may also try to introduce a person who does not raise controversy and is susceptible to the influence of political elites.
– It is possible that a man who will replace Vladimir Putin will not be the most powerful person in the political systemat least in the near future – adds Waller.
In modern Russia, there are few examples of chaos related to the change in the internal political situation. The last serious crisis occurred in 2023, when the Jewgeny of Prigożyn, the leader of the Wagner Group, attempted to organize a military rebellion. As a result of this coup, his mercenaries arrived from Rostów over Don to the suburbs of Moscow. The Russian authorities were surprised. During the rebellion, they only issued individual messages – it seemed that they did not know how to react.
Putin's heritage
Putin's death can cause a similar reaction of the authorities and public opinion – believes Margarita Zawadskaja, an expert on Russian policy from the Finnish Institute of International Affairs.
– His sudden absence would be shocking, but people – instead of mobilizing against or in favor of [nowego przywództwa] whether to commemorate Putin – they would most likely adopt an waiting attitude – says the expert. He suggests that in the event of Putin's death, it may be like Soviet leaders – Russian management will not inform you immediately to have time to prepare the appropriate message.
He adds that factions from outside the Kremlin and the highest circles of the elite will probably not play any role in the process of changing power, and the eternally divided armed forces will need strong motivation to support the competitor for the candidate presented by the management.
Vladimir Putin and XI Jinping in Moscow, May 9, 2025.Contributor / Contributor / Getty Images
Although democratic opposition groups would probably make a lot of noise to mobilize Russians against Putin, they were largely banished and pushed to political margins due to the mass limitation of civil freedoms by the Kremlin.
Margarita Zawadskaja believes that the only certainty about Russia after Putin is that “she probably will not become a democratic regime.” Putin seems happy that the heritage he creates through the war with Ukraine and confrontation with the West will provide him with some kind of immortality.
During a press conference with XI Jinping, Vladimir Putin referred to a common “heroic exploits” of Russia and China in winning World War II and praised the emerging order of the world in which – as in the past – their countries are not dependent on the West. He added that relations between them “reached the highest level in history”, and the countries themselves became “self -sufficient and independent of internal political factors or temporary global agencies”.
