The British general about the “real test” for Europe: we must act urgently

As the Atlantic Council recently stated, Europe has so far the political and military reluctance to take on this challenge. However, in the face of Washington's fluctuations and threats on the part of Moscow, the continent is at a strategic moment, facing the choice: take responsibility for their own defense and security or stay in a dangerous dependence on the forces that he has no control over.

It is doubtful whether the “common case” of European leaders and a significant increase in European defense expenditure can work quickly enough to save Ukraine without significant help from the United States. It is also unknown whether these factors can restore deterrence in the Euro -Atlantic area to discourage Russia from realizing the threat [ataku na któreś z państw NATO] Before 2030

Nowadays, deterrent must also include the so -called “gray zone”. Russia is already undermining NATO's commitment to mutual defense resulting from Article 5 through attacks belonging to this hybrid category, aimed at weakening determination without causing a conventional military reaction. Probably the escalation of such balanced provocations will include, for example, sabotage of submarine cables, cyber attacks on power networks or “rocket accidents” near NATO territory. All this is a deliberate strategy for expanding Moscow's influence.

An example from Ukraine

Meanwhile, on the battlefield in Ukraine, we are observing the merger of World War I and World War III – a case study in real time, announcing some aspects of future warfare. Over the past few years, we have witnessed how quickly the nature of conflicts changes and how the boundaries between the mainland, sea, air, space and cyberspace are blurred when we try to integrate these areas to gain an advantage.

Many people rightly point to the ingenuity of Ukraine in adapting to the situation in the fire of the fight, but Russia introduced innovations at the same pace and on the same scale: it implemented cheap drones, electromagnetic disturbance, aiming assisted by artificial intelligence and transformed its economy into a war driving engine. Only this year Moscow will produce 1,500 tanks, 3,000 armored vehicles and 200 ballistic missiles – matching NATO's annual production in just a few months.

Considering the pace of technological changes, keeping innovation is crucial, and Europe's defense planning must be based on this principle. In the war, the site, which adapts the fastest, always has the best chance of winning – not only, as the military historian Sir Michael Howard noted: “Everyone makes mistakes, so it is important to develop intellectual ability to faster adaptation than the opponent.”

Europe, however, needs a fundamental reliance – not only in terms of the abilities currently required in the future, but also how its systems and institutions have to change to provide them. This means an increase in defense production, modernization of the armed forces, rethinking public procurement and investing in an appropriate combination of abilities that allow today's threats to meet, as well as those that will appear in the future.

To remedy this, the Tony Blair Institute will initiate a program aimed at encouraging a discussion about European defense, analyzing the safety situation and potential scenarios that may play. We will discuss the division of loads, including roles, regions, abilities and defensive industrial base, and we hope to initiate a debate on national and social resistance.

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The money alone is not enough

Fortunately, Europe now has a stronger basis, because NATO members from outside the United States have undertaken to increase basic defense expenses to 3.5 percent. GDP, and the EU has launched the SAFE (Security Action for Europe – security campaign for Europe) worth EUR 150 billion (PLN 639 billion) to increase defense capabilities. However, these activities will not bring the expected results if the money is not spending quickly.

Despite this, Great Britain admits that he will not achieve its goal before 2035, and Spain refuses to make obligations at all. Moreover, according to the International Institute of Strategic Studies, the Safe Fund is nothing compared to $ 1 trillion. (3 trillion PLN 644 billion), which will be needed to fill the gaps in Europe's abilities if the United States withdraw from it.

In this situation, the unwritten truth is that the money alone is not enough: without strategy, political determination, national immunity and structural reforms, investments will not translate into real potential.

Too often, defense expenditure is treated as a program to create jobs in industry, and not as a safety necessity. However, governments must be honest towards their citizens: higher defense expenses will mean difficult compromises.

Today's surveys show that at least half of the British expect a world war in the next decade, only a third support the defense budget, if it means higher taxes or cuts in other areas. Europe should strive for at least 3.5 percent. GDP for defense, but even such a level of expenditure will be insufficient without public procurement reform and industry attitude towards war.

DSEI will present technologies that will shape the battlefields of the future, but The real question is whether Europe has the will, speed and coordination to transform these technologies into a reliable deterrent.

Our economies are ten times larger than Russian, our technology base is much stronger, and our alliances are second to none. If we decide to act in an urgent mode, then any threat from Russia will be able to master.

The question is whether we will do it.