Interest rates and loans. Is it worth waiting for further declines? [ANALIZA]

For example, in July they granted 22.4 thousand. housing loans, i.e. by 15 percent more than in June. In August there were probably fewer of them (BIK did not provide data yet). According to experts of the RynekPierwotny.pl portal, it is worth remembering that this is a popular holiday month. In addition, some of the potential borrowers could refrain from submitting the application in anticipation of a decrease in interest rates expected in September.

In the case of a temporarily fixed interest loan, it pays to wait, because it will not change for five years. And in fact, the Monetary Policy Council for the third time this year reduced interest rates (this time by 0.25 percentage points to 4.75 percent). This decision was expected, so in August a decrease in the WIBOR indicator started a month earlier, which affects the amount of mortgage interest rates.

Further abstaining with the decision may not make sense, because – as suggested by the President of NBP Adam Glapiński during a press conference – another reduction in interest rates will not happen this year.

See also: Poland has almost the most expensive loans in Europe. Where does it come from? [ANALIZA]

Offer and offers of new apartments in the largest cities

The demand for apartments will probably not remain indifferent to the improvement availability of housing loans. The more that Developers began to increase the supply of apartments in the popular segment, i.e. for the pocket of borrowers. However, you are not in a hurry with a purchasing decision, because so far the offer of apartments has grown and their prices have stabilized. In August, many potential buyers of apartments went on vacation. Meanwhile, in the metropolis part, the offer clearly shrunk because Developers began to dose supply. Developers in Warsaw (-51 percent), Krakow (-9 percent), Wrocław (-45 percent), Tri-City (-70 percent) and Łódź (-74 percent) introduced less than in July. At the same time, sales fell even more in Krakow and only thanks to this the offer increased slightly.

According to Big Data Rynekpierwotny.pl, in Warsaw at the end of July, the offer of development companies was available just over 17.4 thousand. apartments (by 1 percent less compared to July), in Krakow – about 11.5 thousand (+1 percent), in Wrocław – approx. 10.8 thousand (-3 percent), in the Tri-City-8.6 thous. (-5 percent), in Łódź-10.1 thousand (-2 percent), in Poznań-8.6 thousand (+2 percent), in cities of the Upper Silesian-Zagłębie metropolis-approx. 11.1 thous. (+1 percent).

However, this did not affect the average price of a square meter of all apartments offered by developers. This year, August was the second in a row the month in which this average did not increase in any of the largest metropolises. And so: in Warsaw, the average price of apartments per square meter was at the end of August about 17.8 thousand. In the ranking of the most expensive metropolises, the Tri -City was promoted to second place (approx. PLN 16.8 thousand), which pushed Krakow to the third position (approx. PLN 16.7 thousand/sq m). Wrocław is still fourth (approx. PLN 14.7 thousand/sq m), and then there are Poznań (approx. PLN 13.6 thousand/sq m), Łódź (PLN 11.5 thousand/sq m) and Górnośląsko-Zagłębiów Metropolis (approx. PLN 11.4 thousand/sq m).

Comparing the average prices of a square meter of new apartments from August this year and the same period of last year, most of the metropolises, you can still see the difference. The glorious exceptions are Warsaw and Łódź. In both metropolises, the average is almost the same as a year ago. As the experts of the RynekPierwotny.pl portal emphasize, it is also worth noting that the difference in other metropolises is getting smaller. For example, in Wrocław, in January it was 12 percent, in June – 5 percent, in July – 3 percent, and in August it shrunk to 2 percent. In the Tri -City, the average price of a square meter was 10 % in June. higher than a year ago, while in August – counted year -on -year – 7 percent

After eight months, Krakow, Wrocław and Poznań compete for the title of the most stable metropolis in 2025. There, the change in the average price of a square meter of new apartments in the period of 12 months was 21 percent in August. In turn, in the Upper Silesian-Zagłębie metropolis-5 percent

Those who are looking for a flat for themselves can look for an optimal offer calmly. However, they should be aware that – as you can see on the example of the Tri -City – the cheapest apartments may begin to disappear from the market.

Situation in housing

Meanwhile – according to the Central Statistical Office (GUS) – during seven months of this year, developers began the construction of over 59.5 thousand. apartments. This is a result of 10 percent. Worse than in the same period before a year. On the other hand, the investment activity of development companies is still high compared to earlier years.

In some metropolises, however, the situation looks much worse. In Wrocław by as much as 42 percent The number of started apartments has dropped. In Łódź, a decline reached 33 percent, in Poznań – 19 percent, in the Tri -City – 18 percent, in Warsaw – 17 percent, and in Katowice – 3 percent

He recorded the investment revival of the Central Statistical Office only in Krakowwhere during the seven months of this year developers began construction by as much as 46 percent. Number of apartments larger than a year ago.

At the same time in the case of Łódź and Katowice this year's result after seven months is sensational (only last year was better). On the other hand In Warsaw, over the last 10 years, developers have slowed down investments only in Pandemic 2020.

As the experts of the RynekPierwotny.pl portal note, consolation may be higher than a year ago the activity of individual investors. Starting construction stabilization on the building materials market and improving the availability of loans is probably conducive to. The CSO recorded within seven months of this year the start of construction over 48.2 thousand. apartments (mainly single -family houses), which means 2 percent Growth compared to the same period last year. However, looking back, it can be seen that single -family housing barely lifts with a hole in which it fell in 2023.

Prices of construction products

According to experts on the RynekPierwotny.pl portal behind the latest report of the PSB Handel group, in July the average price of construction products in 20 assortment groups was 1 percent. lower than a year ago. In three assortment groups, prices were higher, in three they practically did not change, and in 14 they were lower.

The increases concerned the category: OSB boards, wood; paints and varnishes as well as cement and lime (+2 %). Last year's price level (+//to 0.5 percent) remained in the categories: home surroundings, garden and hobby as well as motoring.

In turn, a decrease in prices by approx. 1 percent were recorded in the following categories: construction chemistry; decorations; installations and heating; tiles, bathrooms, kitchens; joinery; Dry buildings as well as walls and chimneys. The groups: equipped and household appliances came in order; tools; roofs and gutters (-2 percent); thermal insulation and finishes (-3 percent).

Construction products controls and a black product list

The Central Building Supervision Office published a report for 2024, which shows that Of the 259 studied samples of construction products, up to 78, or 30 %, had worse functional properties than declared by producers. The increase in the percentage of detected irregularities may be disturbing.

On the other hand, construction supervision studies products that he suspects that their quality is worse. According to GUNB, there are categories of construction products, for which irregularities occur more often than others. The black list includes Thermal insulation materials (polystyrene). On 38 polystyrene boards tested last year, as many as 22, i.e. 37 percent, had low parameters, e.g. heat conduction coefficient, but also compressive strength, stretching and bending.

Membranes were also very poor, including used in liquid form, insulating against moisture or steam. On 14 tested products of this type, 6, i.e. 30 percent , had low parameters.

Cements and lime obtained an even worse test result. Irregularities were found in as much as 33 percent. cases. A large percentage of negative results also concerned products from groups: devices for heating rooms (26 percent of negative results) as well as floor and floor products (18 % of negative results).

The most common cause of irregularities on the building materials market is insufficient production control and lack of raw materials tests. Of course, this does not release the manufacturer from responsibility, but it can be assumed that it was not his intention to create an incorrect product. Unfortunately, there are also entrepreneurs who cheat consciously to gain a competitive advantage.

As the experts of the RynekPierwotny.pl portal emphasize, it can only be happy that the risk of hitting the sell is getting smaller. 10 years ago, up to 60 percent The products inspected by building supervision should not have been sent to stores or to the construction site due to low quality. So let's look into the registry kept by the GUNB with the results of research of construction products samples, because you can find out from which manufacturers watch the declared quality and which are better not to trust.