What is Trump planning against Eastern Europe? “Everyone is afraid of it”
Can limiting such funds also hit Poland to some extent?
– No, because here we are talking about strictly funds for the defense needs of the Baltic States. For us, the Foreign Military Sales procedure is the key, where we are the largest customer of the American reinforcement globally. Poland also receives American credit guarantees under the Foreign Military Financing program for this shopping. The presence of American troops in Poland is also crucial for us – says Onet Piotr Szymański, an analyst of the Eastern Studies Center.
$ 228 million suspended
The expert calls to take reports on the restriction of American security funds “calmly, because this is only the first signal in this matter.”
In the Baltic States, the topic is already commented, because any changes are to apply to the Baltic Security Initiative program. – At the moment we only know that Trump's administration did not apply for the extension of this program – comments Onet's interlocutor.
The expert points out that Trump's possible decision is one thing, but in the game there is also an American congress, which in the matter of money for the Baltic States may have a different opinion. – If we look at the proposal of one of the senators, it assumes an increase in funds to BSI to 350 million – he reminds.
BSI is a program that has been implemented since 2022. Its value gradually increased to $ 228 million. The money was provided by the United States. At this moment there is no guarantee that this money will serve the Baltic States in the coming years.
– Baltic states are often discussed as the potentially most sensitive to Russian aggression. Any limitation of supporting their defense capabilities is not good for themselves, or of course it is not a good signal [wysyłanym] For Russia – admits Szymański.
The Balts spend four times more on defense than in 2014.
The OSW analyst notes, however, that the Baltic States are in a completely different place than in 2014, when the illegal annexation of Crimea took place by Russia. – At that time, the defensive budgets of the Baltic States were modest. Of course, they still remain relatively modest compared to Polish or German expenses. But it must be said that the Baltic States have made amazing progress here – he believes.
The expert uses the official NATO data. – Lithuania has a planned budget for this year (ed. As we add up, we have over $ 5.5 billion. In their case, this is more than a four -time increase over a decade. So you can see that this amount over $ 200 million. At Baltic Security Initiative, this is no longer Game Changer when it comes to the defensive budgets of the Baltic States – he notes.
What did the Baltic States allocated money from the BSI program to? – Money went largely to American training and exercises in the Baltic States. They also partly went to co -finance the defense skills of the Balts – the answer is given.
Loans for the purchase of American equipment do not disappear
Szymański emphasizes, however, that money from BSI “is a small part of all American means that concern strengthening the potential of deterrence in Europe.” – For example, we have a program, which in 2014, at the beginning of its existence, was still called the European Reassurance Initiative for Barracka Obama. Later, it was converted into European Detterence Initiative and various activities are financed, which are to show and strengthen Russia in Europe. Hence the rotation of American armored brigade combat groups, various exercises, storage of military equipment and various expenses for military infrastructure – he calculates.
– These are the funds that after 2014 Balts also used. They went to the expansion of training grounds, to modernize air force bases, to American exercises in the Baltic States, among others – he adds.
Szymański also points to the above -mentioned Foreign Military Sales program, which lends purchases of modern American military equipment. The program is also used by the Balts and at the moment does not announce that Americans want to withdraw from it. – This program is particularly important for the Balts. Contracts for the purchase of Himars or Blackhawków are all implemented from this program-he says.
“Bałtów do not put everything on one card”
Describing the possibility of the Americans to withdraw from some funds used by the Balts (e.g. BSI), the Financial Times quotes the commentary of one of the European officials: “the US move was clearly aimed at encouraging richer European countries to pay for more assistance in the field of security for countries on the front line.”
– This is an acceptable interpretation, but I would not go in this direction – comments Szymański. – I would wait what the fate of this program will be. And the second thing is that a lot is going on in Europe. We have a Safe program, there will be EU loans for joint purchases of armament and military equipment. States can create various consortia to develop an industrial base supported by EU funds. More financing options are done – he calms down.
The OSW analyst points out that “the Balts do not put everything on one card in their modernization programs.” – If you look at Lithuania, for example, they are many military equipment (e.g. HaubicoMatat PZH 2000 or Boxer Infantry Combat) from Germany – he points out.
However, there are voices that in terms of the possible limitation of American military funds in Europe, it is not even about the money. And more about the potential signal for Russia that the Baltic States are not so crucial for the American administration of Trump.
“It's good when the US Army battalion stands near Vilnius”
The OSW analyst does not agree with such a narrative. He indicates what really is important here.
– There is a training ground between Vilnius and the Belarusian border, and there are an armored battalion there for years. In the Baltic States, they maintain various forms of military presence, whether permanent rotation or exercise with Himars launchers and combat aviation. This is the most important thing. It's good when the US Army battalion stands near Vilnius – he comments.
The analyst emphasizes that key information will probably come this fall, when the Americans will publish Global Posture Review. – The Defense Department is to review the stationing of American forces in the world. Everyone is afraid of it, and they are waiting for this document, wondering what they decide in Washington – he admits.
– For us, the most important thing is that as much as possible on the eastern flank of American forces. There is speculation that Trump will decide to withdraw certain forces from Europe. However, on the example of recent declarations regarding Poland, you can look at it with some optimism – he believes.
To sum up the conversation, the OSW analyst says: – I would be more worried about these 200 million from the BSI fund, but financing military assistance for Ukraine. Here, the Trump administration has definitely changed the policy towards Biden. It is Europeans who are now buying American equipment for Ukraine and this is really the biggest change so far made by this administration towards Europe in security policy.
