France, considered a long time a pillar of stability in the euro area, is now facing a political and economic climate reminiscent of Italy years of crisis.
Prime Minister François Bayrou Photo: Facebook
The disputes between the main parties, the blockages on the budget on 2026 and the repeated changes of prime ministers have fed the question more and more often spoken by economists: “Is France the new Italy? ”, writes news.
The public debt of France reached 113% of GDP in 2024, while the budget deficit amounted to 5.8%, far exceeding the European thresholds. By comparison, Italy, with a debt of 135% of GDP, managed to maintain a smaller deficit of 3.4%. This difference has determined the nomura analysts to say that “”The fiscal perspective of France is currently more serious than that of Italy ”according to CNBC.
Prime Minister François Bayrou linked the survival of his government to the confidence vote scheduled for September 8, considering that the situation is “serious and urgent ”.
If he loses the support of the Parliament, France could have the fifth prime minister in less than two years, after the failure of Michel Barnier's administration.
Both the left -wing alliance The new popular front and the right -wing national formation have announced that they will not support the centrist government, which makes the collapse of the extremely probable executive. Among the challenged measures are the reduction of two legal holidays, a measure perceived as an improper and difficult to justify.
The tense situation has increased the financing costs for the French state. The yield of the 30 -year bonds climbed over 4.5%on Tuesday, an unmatched level since 2008, a sign that investors anxiously concern the Paris developments.
For analysts, France risks offering next week “a sad and public show”, while President Emmanuel Macron is most likely to name a new prime minister in the centrist or center-right camp, with names such as Sébastien Lecornu, Gérald Darmanin or Eric Lombard.
