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2025-09-01 09:13
The PMI indicator for the Polish manufacturing sector The third month from the government indicated a decisive decrease in the economic situation. Meanwhile, GUS data indicate a slight increase in industrial production in Poland.
The PMI indicator for the Polish manufacturing sector in July improved compared to July, in August growing from 45.9 to 46.6 points – informed the analytical company S&P Global. The result turned out to be slightly lower than the expectations of analysts who expected a result of 46.8 points.
The Polish PMI has already remained below 50 points in a row, signaling a decrease in economic activity in the manufacturing sector. According to this meter, the burst occurred in May, when PMI completely unexpectedly scored a decrease from 50.2 points. up to 47.1 points At that time it was a signal that from a short -term revival (because for the previous three months PMI took values slightly higher than 50 points) we went to the recession again.
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These results were strange because the analogous indicator for the euro area in August adopted a value of 50.5 points. And he reached the highest level for 38 months! We would therefore have an unambiguous revival (though not very strong) in the largest recipients of Polish exports and at the same time a deep decline in the economic situation? It would be at least strange. The more that nothing like that was shown by data on industrial production, which in July increased by 2.9% yard. Maybe not much, but still in the plus. And it was a reading that did not have a recession “Piemaj”.
– According to the latest PMI data in August, the economic conditions in the Polish manufacturing sector again deteriorated with a sharp decline in production and new orders – we read in the latest S&P Global report. It is true that the authors of this study point out that the August decline was smaller than July, but it appeared.
Perhaps the solution to the puzzle of sudden loss of convergence by PMI and industrial production statistics is a negatively weighing rapid decline in new orders. That is, future production, which we do not see in official data yet. – International markets still inhibited general demand. Export orders have also dropped the fifth month in a row, although at the slowest pace for three months – we read in the S&P Global report.
– New orders, exports, production and arrears fell in August at a slower but still violent pace, which caused faster reduction of jobs. The main positive aspect of the latest study was the further improvement of the future production indicator, which, noting the highest value for five months, approached the level of long -term trend – wrote in the commentary Trevor Balchin, economic director at S&P Global Market Intelligence.
The second option of discrepancies between the PMI indicator and industrial production results is the different structure of the studied group. In addition, in the PMI study, each “voice” weighs the same. It is therefore possible that small and smaller enterprises are doing less than large companies that dominate the Gusian survey of industrial production.
The PMI indicator illustrates the condition of industry and is calculated on the basis of five subindeks:
- new orders,
- production,
- employment,
- delivery time,
- items purchased.
Decreasing readings below 50 points signal the acceleration of the pace of decrease in economic activity. Growing (from month to month), but remaining below 50 points, means a slowdown in the pace of decline. Only readings above 50 points signal the improvement in the economic situation. This indicator takes values from 0 to 100 points and has been developed since 1998.
