To understand the scale of the change, it is worth recalling that raising the de minimis threshold to $ 800. It was introduced only in March 2016 under the TFtea Act, which was to simplify trade and accelerate severance pay. This caused an explosion of duty -free shipments, from approx. 134–139 million in 2015 to 1.36 billion in the fiscal year 2024, of which the dominant part came from China. For consumers it was convenient, for e-commerce-revolutionary, and for services-more and more difficult to control.
The administration justifies the end of the exception of security and law enforcement. Small packages were to hinder the fight against smuggling drugs, fakes and goods produced with forced work. CBP and the White House indicated that the vast majority of the double -bailings concerned about the de minimis channel, which strengthened political pressure to “close the gap”.
The effects began to be visible immediately and globally
Some postal operators, including Australia Post, Japan Post and several carriers in Europe, She temporarily suspended accepting parcels to the USATo adapt systems to new requirements, which hit thousands of micro-experts and creators selling through Etsy, ebay or shopify. For many of them, American customers were the majority of revenues.
The impact on e-commerce business models is real and countable. Economists from Nber indicate that the liquidation of §321 will reduce the well -being of US consumers by at least $ 10.9 billion a year, i.e. about $ 136. for a household, where Farms with lower income will suffer the most.
Some of the analyzes even talk about costs of $ 13 billion. This means pressure on prices in terms of fashion and accessories, electronic gadgets, cosmetics, specialist food and subscriptions of niche products.
The first victims can already be seen in public markets. Tapesters, the owner of a coach and Kate, estimated $ 160 million. Annual tariff load, which translates into approx. 230 base points of pressure on the margin. The company's course felt it strongly. Wells Fargo analysts reduced Lululemon's valuation, indicating $ 0.90-1.10. negative impact on profit on the action after de minimis extinguishing. On a smaller scale, many D2C brands are doing similar bills today.
Worse for this and Shein
It is also worth noting the chessboard in the marketplace segment. Closing the gap for China and Hong Kong in May and the prospect of the global end of exception translated into violent decreases in users' activity ago and Shein in the USA in spring and early summer. At the same time, reports of temporary trading signaled that he returns to direct shipments from China and raises advertising budgets, which shows how quickly players will test new paths as part of changing rules.
Amazon and Walmart, with warehouse facilities in the USA, can gain market share in this confusion.
For brands around the world, the consequences are strategic. Over the years, companies have designed DERMINATION supply chains, including Using border warehouses in Canada and Mexico and breaking up shipping into individual “last mile” packages. Now models with earlier introduction of goods to the US on standard terms (e.g. by fullfillment centers), pre-celling and DDP delivery, as well as greater consolidation of shipments and a greater consolidation of shipments and a change in transport from air to sea in the top of the season. This will affect cash flow, supply rotation, price valuations and promotion calendars.
Polish and European sellers-from craftsmen sending to the USA through etsy to medium fashion brands with their own e-shop-a simple choice awaits. Or they decide to move part of the supply closer to the end customer, agreeing to the higher working capital and the costs of national logistics in the USA, or raise prices and offer transparent settlement of customs duties at the briefingtaking the risk of giving up the basket. In both scenarios, transparent calculation of duties and taxes at the Checkout, refining the refund policy at survivors and renegotiation of contracts with operators will be important.
In a short term, it is worth taking into account delays and congestion on the border, because customs authorities and operators are just learning a new regime.
For consumers, this means higher prices
In this new normality, those who will move the supply closer to the customer in the USA fastest, integrate the duty and taxes with the basket, diversify sourcing and accelerate the analytics of demand so as not to transport air.
Polish companies, which today have a significant share of sales in the USA, should now count the thresholds of profitability for DDP, consider 3PL partnerships with the networks of the Eastern and West Coast, and review the tariff letters.
