US President Donald Trump said the Russians had captured the Ukrainian capital in just a few hours in February 2022 if the Russian army tanks had managed to reach Kiev. Analysts tell a different story, Euronews reports, citing a study on the first days of the invasion.
The Russians “would have reached Kiev in four hours on the highway. But a Russian general made the brilliant decision to go through agricultural lands,” Trump said earlier this month.
“And just what had been torrential rains, and the rains were so severe that there was a lot of mud, and those tanks got stuck in the mud. I don't know who that general is, but, knowing Vladimir, it is probably no longer around.”
An analysis of the conclusions of the experts about what happened in the first days of the invasion shows that these statements are not supported, according to Euronews.
Analysts at the Institute of Modern War have shown in a study that Russia's attempts to conquer Kiev were pregnant with a combination of Ukraine military strategy and logistical and tactical errors of the Russian army.
The mud in the Irpin River Valley, west of Kiev, really obstructs the movement of tanks, but this factor would not have been enough to stop the Russian advance on Kiev.
What stopped on the Russians to reach Kiev
The study of the experts shows that the Russian army used the highways to advance with the help of tanks to the Ukrainian capital in the first days of the invasion, but they have been struck by other obstacles besides the mud.
According to the conclusions of analysts from the Institute of Modern War, the Russian forces that entered the border with Belarus traveled “150 km of open road to reach the outskirts of Kiev” in the first phase of the battle.
“Many Russian soldiers had old maps and weak communications between the different parts of their convoys”, in addition, “the Ukrainians removed or painted as many road signs” to confuse the invading tanks, they wrote.
They note that the Irpin river from the west of Kiev has presented a “significant obstacle to the traffic of vehicles”, but the eastern part of the capital does not have such natural obstacles.
At the same time, the satellite images provided by Maxary Technologies and analyzed by Euroverify clearly show Russian tanks on highways, heading to Kiev in early March 2022, while Russian troops were trying to circle the capital.
Moscow failed to obtain “air supremacy”
An important factor was the failure of Russia to capture Kiev by air.
Despite the fact that they were exceeded numerically in terms of fighting aircraft, Ukrainian forces have successfully threw Russia's attempt to take control over Hostomel airport, a former Soviet air base about 10 km north of Kiev.
The Russian troops took over the airport control only after the reinforcements arrived from the border with Belarus. Ukraine regained full control over the airport until April.
According to analysts, the occupation of the airport was an essential part of Russia's plan to conquer Kiev.
“If Russia had occupied the aerodrome at Hostomel Airport faster (…) most likely the Russian forces would have been able to reach the center of Kiev in the first days of the war,” the Modern War Institute concluded.
“The Russians expected to win the air supremacy, but in the best case they managed to achieve only the air superiority,” they noted.
The muddy conditions have only partially obstructed Russia's advancement
Trump's statements have some basis: the muddy land really complicated things for the Russian army.
The invasion took place at the beginning of spring when a phenomenon is known as “Rasputitsa” in Russia and “Bezdorizhzhya” in Ukraine, when the snow begins to melt.
There is credible evidence that the invading troops who traveled on unpaved roads have remained stuck in the mud, partially removing the advance.
Some Ukrainian media reported that in those days the Russian army abandoned many tanks because of this, these being later recovered by the Ukrainian farmers and reconditioned by the Ukrainian armed forces.
