Bitter system with Trump. Europe has avoided customs war, but for a high price
Most people kept their fingers crossed, some smiled uncertainly. Sabine Weyand, the highest EU official for trade, had a bad face. One could read one thing – the EU found itself in a difficult situation.
Photo taken on July 27 when signing a fragile customs truce between the European Union and the United States in the Scottish Golf Center of President Donald Trump captured the dissatisfaction of Europeans from the contract. It turned out to be only “the best option you could get” – nothing more.
Sensitive addiction
Both parties finally confirmed the agreement reached by Trump and chairwoman of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen in the form of a common statement. It sets the basic customs rate for the United States in the amount of 15 percent, assumes a reduction in duties to European cars, limits the fees to pharmaceutical products and semiconductors, and completely releases the export of EU aircraft from duties.
At all times, Europe has led a delicate game with Trump, trying to force him to keep his commercial promises. At the same time, European leaders pressed him to undertake to ensure Ukraine guarantees of security before Russia's aggression.
– We are still hostages of American military and strategic protection, whose crucial point is Ukraine – says Pascal Lamas, former EU Commissioner for Trade. – If we attacked Trump, which we have an economic opportunity, he could say: “Well, since Europeans are enemies, I see no reason why I would continue to help Ukraine.” Nobody wants to take responsibility for it – he adds.
A less urgent but more troublesome task for Brussels It will be showing the world that it did not break the rules of international trade, which she helped to create. Finally, Beijing, Washington and New Delhi about the importance of the World Trade Organization as an arbitrator based on principles.
Donald Trump in the White House with the President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelnski, chairwoman of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen, NATO secretary Marek Rutte and other European leaders, August 18, 2025.
– We completely ignored the principles that we helped to create with the Americans. If the situation does not change, we will be accused of further undermining them – says Lama. In the years 2005-2013 he headed the WTO in Geneva.
The granting by von der Leyen that the EU has a “surplus” in trade with the USA, which the contract will help “balance”, was the last impulse that Trump's administration needed to announce a victory and bury a system that she has long considered outdated.
“Using a combination of customs and access to foreign markets and investment, the United States has laid the foundations for a new global trade order. The Turnberry system is not yet completed, but its construction is progressing” – wrote Jamieson Greer, the main commercial negotiator of Trump, in an article published in the newspaper a few days after signing the contract.
Crisis of credibility
According to leading experts for trade, a transatlantic trade agreement may undermine the principles that Brussels has long propagated within the WTO, in a world increasingly shaped by a ruthless geopolitical confrontation.
– The EU will be very difficult to say that “weapons a multilateral trade system” because he is one of the many members who decided to negotiate a double -sided agreement with the United States – says Marco Molina, a lawyer specializing in trade and were a high -ranking diplomat. Until 2024, he managed talks about the reform of the WTO dispute decision.
The main problem of the contract is that It is contrary to the basic principles of a multilateral trade system: reciprocity and non -discrimination.
According to the first, both partners must grant each other more or less equivalent concessions, which they currently do not provide. The non -discrimination, which is basically defined by the highest WTO privilege, requires that all benefits granted to one trading partner to be immediately extended to all members, unless the contract includes “essentially all trade”.
Therefore, although the EU agreed to abolish all customs of American industrial products and cars, it must do so as part of the full trade agreement. The Commission claims that the agreement with Trump will ultimately meet this requirement. Brussels argues that because most duties are to be gradually abolished, the contract will ultimately be in accordance with the established principles of world trade.
On Thursday, a high -ranking commission official told journalists that in the first paragraph of a joint statement a “obligation of both parties to make efforts for gradual liberalization” was expressed. It was emphasized that these are “ongoing works that will also help meet the standards of the World Trade Organization in these issues.” The commission officially expresses a clear commitment.
– The European Union is and will remain an advocate and supporter of the WTO and trade based on principles, it will not change – says Olof Gill, spokesman for the European Commission for Trade.
Even former commission officials, however, do not believe in these assurances.
– The credibility of the EU as a pillar of the system based on the WTO would be seriously tarnished if it decided to preferently reduce the duties – says Ignacio Garcia Bercero, who was the person responsible for transatlantic relations in the Commission and until 2024 he was responsible for WTO policy. Currently, he is an independent expert in the Brussels Think Tank Bruegel. – the argument that the “agreement” between the EU and the USA is a step towards [umowy o wolnym handlu] In accordance with the WTO rules, there is no credibility – he adds.
Thy
What to do when the biggest kid in the playground stops playing according to the rules? In the case of the EU, the answer is more and more clear: you do not stand alone – you create a gang.
Initially, Brussels was based on the idea of coordinating activities with other countries affected by Trump's customs, such as Canada or Mexico. Ultimately, however, she changed the course. – The main accusation that the commission can be made is that it did not make serious attempts to build an international coalition against Trump – says Lamy, former WTO boss.
Brussels tried to fix it at the end of June. During the summit of the leaders of Ursula von der Leyen, she presented the idea of creating a new club in which 27 EU countries would join forces with members of the CPTPP (Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership) block, which includes Great Britain, Canada, Japan, Mexico and Australia.
This idea met with an enthusiastic reception from the leader of the largest block economy – German chancellor Friedrich Merz. – If the WTO is so dysfunctional and it remains, then we who still consider free trade as an important principle must come up with something else – he told journalists.
Talks between EU and CPTPP negotiators are to take place this year. Their goal will be to coordinate activities for Defense of trade based on the principles in the face of Trump's customs offensive – Politico informed the high -ranking financial official of New Zealand.
– The only way the EU can rebuild confidence in the system is to coordinate activities with other members outside the United States to ensure compliance with the WTO principles – says Molina, who currently manages his own Molina & Associates law firm.
– This will require leadership and teamwork – and the hope that Washington will eventually realize that this trade war is harmful to America and consumers – he adds.
